OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that its forthcoming large language model Astra has reached the company’s Critical cybersecurity capability threshold under the Preparedness Framework is the main driver behind the 79.5% market-implied probability for a September 3 release. The update detailed strengthened safeguards against cyber misuse, perfect scores on ExploitBench, and plans for limited advanced feature access at launch, following weeks of development delays after the Hugging Face incident. Traders interpret the company’s “available soon” language and resumption of work as signaling an imminent rollout, consistent with historical patterns of rapid releases after safety clearances. Upcoming catalysts include the promised system card and tester access details, which could confirm or shift the near-term consensus reflected in the odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOpenAI's Astra released on...?
OpenAI's Astra released on...?
September 3 79.6%
On or prior to September 2 5.9%
September 24 5.5%
September 17 5.1%
NOWE
$32,238 Wol.
NOWE
$32,238 Wol.
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
6%
September 3
80%
September 4
1%
September 5
<1%
September 6
1%
September 7
2%
September 8
2%
September 9
2%
September 10
2%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
1%
September 14
1%
September 15
2%
September 16
1%
September 17
5%
September 18
1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
2%
September 22
1%
September 23
1%
September 24
6%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
1%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
5%
September 3 79.6%
On or prior to September 2 5.9%
September 24 5.5%
September 17 5.1%
NOWE
$32,238 Wol.
NOWE
$32,238 Wol.
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
$2,039 Wol.
6%
September 3
$4,124 Wol.
80%
September 4
$1,896 Wol.
1%
September 5
$1,193 Wol.
<1%
September 6
$842 Wol.
1%
September 7
$750 Wol.
2%
September 8
$611 Wol.
2%
September 9
$610 Wol.
2%
September 10
$440 Wol.
2%
September 11
$733 Wol.
1%
September 12
$733 Wol.
1%
September 13
$829 Wol.
1%
September 14
$766 Wol.
1%
September 15
$1,185 Wol.
2%
September 16
$855 Wol.
1%
September 17
$855 Wol.
5%
September 18
$755 Wol.
1%
September 19
$755 Wol.
1%
September 20
$855 Wol.
1%
September 21
$1,015 Wol.
2%
September 22
$755 Wol.
1%
September 23
$712 Wol.
1%
September 24
$1,780 Wol.
6%
September 25
$1,015 Wol.
1%
September 26
$712 Wol.
1%
September 27
$1,433 Wol.
1%
September 28
$1,121 Wol.
1%
September 29
$755 Wol.
1%
September 30
$765 Wol.
1%
No release by September 30
$1,349 Wol.
5%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that its forthcoming large language model Astra has reached the company’s Critical cybersecurity capability threshold under the Preparedness Framework is the main driver behind the 79.5% market-implied probability for a September 3 release. The update detailed strengthened safeguards against cyber misuse, perfect scores on ExploitBench, and plans for limited advanced feature access at launch, following weeks of development delays after the Hugging Face incident. Traders interpret the company’s “available soon” language and resumption of work as signaling an imminent rollout, consistent with historical patterns of rapid releases after safety clearances. Upcoming catalysts include the promised system card and tester access details, which could confirm or shift the near-term consensus reflected in the odds.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
Wolumen
$32,238Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that its forthcoming large language model Astra has reached the company’s Critical cybersecurity capability threshold under the Preparedness Framework is the main driver behind the 79.5% market-implied probability for a September 3 release. The update detailed strengthened safeguards against cyber misuse, perfect scores on ExploitBench, and plans for limited advanced feature access at launch, following weeks of development delays after the Hugging Face incident. Traders interpret the company’s “available soon” language and resumption of work as signaling an imminent rollout, consistent with historical patterns of rapid releases after safety clearances. Upcoming catalysts include the promised system card and tester access details, which could confirm or shift the near-term consensus reflected in the odds.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$32,238Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that its forthcoming large language model Astra has reached the company’s Critical cybersecurity capability threshold under the Preparedness Framework is the main driver behind the 79.5% market-implied probability for a September 3 release. The update detailed strengthened safeguards against cyber misuse, perfect scores on ExploitBench, and plans for limited advanced feature access at launch, following weeks of development delays after the Hugging Face incident. Traders interpret the company’s “available soon” language and resumption of work as signaling an imminent rollout, consistent with historical patterns of rapid releases after safety clearances. Upcoming catalysts include the promised system card and tester access details, which could confirm or shift the near-term consensus reflected in the odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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