Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe commands trader consensus at 59.5% implied probability for re-election on October 26, driven by his 2022 victory with 51% of the vote and steady 50% approval in late 2025 polling, despite criticisms over transit reliability and service declines. Councillor Jeff Leiper, a progressive Kitchissippi ward incumbent since 2014, trails at 23% as the primary challenger, emphasizing improved city services amid top voter concerns like housing affordability (19-20% priority) and cost of living (37%). Homebuilder Alex Lawson's January 23 announcement and door-to-door efforts yield 9.8%; Catherine McKenney sits at 5.8%. No polls or major developments in the past 30 days; fragmented opposition and low turnout historically favor incumbents, with nomination filings approaching.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOttawa Mayoral Election Winner
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner
Mark Sutcliffe 60%
Jeff Leiper 23%
Alex Lawson 9.8%
Catherine McKenney 5.4%
Mark Sutcliffe
60%
Jeff Leiper
23%
Alex Lawson
10%
Catherine McKenney
5%
Neil Saravanamuttoo
<1%
Mark Sutcliffe 60%
Jeff Leiper 23%
Alex Lawson 9.8%
Catherine McKenney 5.4%
Mark Sutcliffe
60%
Jeff Leiper
23%
Alex Lawson
10%
Catherine McKenney
5%
Neil Saravanamuttoo
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 2, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe commands trader consensus at 59.5% implied probability for re-election on October 26, driven by his 2022 victory with 51% of the vote and steady 50% approval in late 2025 polling, despite criticisms over transit reliability and service declines. Councillor Jeff Leiper, a progressive Kitchissippi ward incumbent since 2014, trails at 23% as the primary challenger, emphasizing improved city services amid top voter concerns like housing affordability (19-20% priority) and cost of living (37%). Homebuilder Alex Lawson's January 23 announcement and door-to-door efforts yield 9.8%; Catherine McKenney sits at 5.8%. No polls or major developments in the past 30 days; fragmented opposition and low turnout historically favor incumbents, with nomination filings approaching.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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