Market-implied odds for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close reflect closely contested trader views, with the >8,000 band leading at 26.5% amid a spread of probabilities across 6,500–8,000 ranges. Elevated core inflation near 3.3% PCE and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July—with three dissents favoring a hike—anchor the range, as persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply risks offset solid corporate earnings growth and AI-driven revenue trends. Analyst targets cluster between 7,100 and 8,250, underscoring uncertainty over whether September FOMC data or Q3 results can shift the implied path toward the higher or lower bands before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
>$8,000 27%
$7,000-$7,500 21%
$7,500-$8,000 20%
$6,500-$7,000 19%
$34,090 Wol.
$34,090 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
9%
$6,000-$6,500
12%
$6,500-$7,000
19%
$7,000-$7,500
21%
$7,500-$8,000
20%
>$8,000
27%
>$8,000 27%
$7,000-$7,500 21%
$7,500-$8,000 20%
$6,500-$7,000 19%
$34,090 Wol.
$34,090 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$19,703 Wol.
9%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,982 Wol.
12%
$6,500-$7,000
$3,466 Wol.
19%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,900 Wol.
21%
$7,500-$8,000
$3,426 Wol.
20%
>$8,000
$3,614 Wol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Market-implied odds for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close reflect closely contested trader views, with the >8,000 band leading at 26.5% amid a spread of probabilities across 6,500–8,000 ranges. Elevated core inflation near 3.3% PCE and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July—with three dissents favoring a hike—anchor the range, as persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply risks offset solid corporate earnings growth and AI-driven revenue trends. Analyst targets cluster between 7,100 and 8,250, underscoring uncertainty over whether September FOMC data or Q3 results can shift the implied path toward the higher or lower bands before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Rynek otwarty: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$34,090Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Market-implied odds for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close reflect closely contested trader views, with the >8,000 band leading at 26.5% amid a spread of probabilities across 6,500–8,000 ranges. Elevated core inflation near 3.3% PCE and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July—with three dissents favoring a hike—anchor the range, as persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply risks offset solid corporate earnings growth and AI-driven revenue trends. Analyst targets cluster between 7,100 and 8,250, underscoring uncertainty over whether September FOMC data or Q3 results can shift the implied path toward the higher or lower bands before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Wolumen
$34,090Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close reflect closely contested trader views, with the >8,000 band leading at 26.5% amid a spread of probabilities across 6,500–8,000 ranges. Elevated core inflation near 3.3% PCE and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July—with three dissents favoring a hike—anchor the range, as persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply risks offset solid corporate earnings growth and AI-driven revenue trends. Analyst targets cluster between 7,100 and 8,250, underscoring uncertainty over whether September FOMC data or Q3 results can shift the implied path toward the higher or lower bands before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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