Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office
<44m 100.0%
44-48m <1%
48-52m <1%
>52m <1%
$150,805 Wol.
$150,805 Wol.
Apr 20, 2026
<44m
Yes
44-48m
No
48-52m
No
>52m
No
<44m 100.0%
44-48m <1%
48-52m <1%
>52m <1%
$150,805 Wol.
$150,805 Wol.
Apr 20, 2026
<44m
$11,715 Wol.
Yes
44-48m
$7,382 Wol.
No
48-52m
$91,237 Wol.
No
>52m
$40,472 Wol.
No
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$150,805Data zakończenia
Apr 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Wolumen
$150,805Data zakończenia
Apr 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million, driven by final tallies confirming a $35 million 3-day gross for April 17-19 amid steady reporting from trade outlets like Variety and Deadline. This reflects a typical -50% drop from its $69 million second-frame haul, pressured by competition from Lee Cronin's The Mummy's $13-34 million debut and Project Hail Mary's holdover strength, while building to a robust $355 million domestic cume in line with the franchise's proven family-animation legs. Realistic upsets would require rare upward revisions in studio finals—exceeding 20% boosts from estimates—but historical box office patterns make that improbable as the frame closes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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