Chancellor John Healey's first Budget on 28 October 2026 will center on reconciling defense spending commitments of £15 billion through 2029 with fiscal rules and no increases in income tax, national insurance, or VAT. Recent inflation at 3.1% and energy price volatility have tightened financial conditions, while the Office for Budget Responsibility prepares a single pre-measures forecast to reduce volatility around borrowing projections. Traders are watching for measures to reallocate investment budgets, devolve business rate powers to mayors, and deliver regional growth initiatives without breaching the current budget balance target. Upcoming OBR data and any last-minute revenue adjustments will shape sentiment ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will be in the UK Budget?
CGT increase
70%
Fuel duty increase
41%
Wealth tax
21%
Land value tax
51%
$65 Wol.
CGT increase
70%
Fuel duty increase
41%
Wealth tax
21%
Land value tax
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows:
- Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets.
- Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home.
- Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty.
- CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax.
A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count.
For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase.
If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows:
- Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets.
- Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home.
- Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty.
- CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax.
A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count.
For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase.
If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Chancellor John Healey's first Budget on 28 October 2026 will center on reconciling defense spending commitments of £15 billion through 2029 with fiscal rules and no increases in income tax, national insurance, or VAT. Recent inflation at 3.1% and energy price volatility have tightened financial conditions, while the Office for Budget Responsibility prepares a single pre-measures forecast to reduce volatility around borrowing projections. Traders are watching for measures to reallocate investment budgets, devolve business rate powers to mayors, and deliver regional growth initiatives without breaching the current budget balance target. Upcoming OBR data and any last-minute revenue adjustments will shape sentiment ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano



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