Recent UK economic data and official forecasts underpin the 85.2% market-implied probability for 1-2% annual GDP growth in 2026. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects 1.1% growth, citing subdued momentum, widening spare capacity, and the drag from elevated energy prices linked to Middle East tensions eroding real incomes. Consensus estimates from the IMF, HM Treasury surveys, and institutions such as EY and Capital Economics similarly cluster between 0.9% and 1.2%, following confirmed quarterly expansions of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2. While Q3 data and the September 17 Bank Rate decision could introduce volatility, the prevailing baseline of below-potential growth amid sticky inflation supports the strong trader consensus around the 1-2% range.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUK Annual GDP Growth 2026
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
1-2% 85.1%
0-1% 12%
2-3% 2.0%
<0 1.7%
$82,841 Wol.
$82,841 Wol.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
2%
0-1%
12%
1-2%
85%
2-3%
2%
3-4%
2%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 85.1%
0-1% 12%
2-3% 2.0%
<0 1.7%
$82,841 Wol.
$82,841 Wol.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
$11,903 Wol.
2%
0-1%
$20,086 Wol.
12%
1-2%
$29,894 Wol.
85%
2-3%
$4,662 Wol.
2%
3-4%
$3,594 Wol.
2%
4-5%
$8,735 Wol.
<1%
5%+
$3,966 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK economic data and official forecasts underpin the 85.2% market-implied probability for 1-2% annual GDP growth in 2026. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects 1.1% growth, citing subdued momentum, widening spare capacity, and the drag from elevated energy prices linked to Middle East tensions eroding real incomes. Consensus estimates from the IMF, HM Treasury surveys, and institutions such as EY and Capital Economics similarly cluster between 0.9% and 1.2%, following confirmed quarterly expansions of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2. While Q3 data and the September 17 Bank Rate decision could introduce volatility, the prevailing baseline of below-potential growth amid sticky inflation supports the strong trader consensus around the 1-2% range.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Wolumen
$82,841Data zakończenia
Feb 12, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK economic data and official forecasts underpin the 85.2% market-implied probability for 1-2% annual GDP growth in 2026. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects 1.1% growth, citing subdued momentum, widening spare capacity, and the drag from elevated energy prices linked to Middle East tensions eroding real incomes. Consensus estimates from the IMF, HM Treasury surveys, and institutions such as EY and Capital Economics similarly cluster between 0.9% and 1.2%, following confirmed quarterly expansions of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2. While Q3 data and the September 17 Bank Rate decision could introduce volatility, the prevailing baseline of below-potential growth amid sticky inflation supports the strong trader consensus around the 1-2% range.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$82,841Data zakończenia
Feb 12, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK economic data and official forecasts underpin the 85.2% market-implied probability for 1-2% annual GDP growth in 2026. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects 1.1% growth, citing subdued momentum, widening spare capacity, and the drag from elevated energy prices linked to Middle East tensions eroding real incomes. Consensus estimates from the IMF, HM Treasury surveys, and institutions such as EY and Capital Economics similarly cluster between 0.9% and 1.2%, following confirmed quarterly expansions of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2. While Q3 data and the September 17 Bank Rate decision could introduce volatility, the prevailing baseline of below-potential growth amid sticky inflation supports the strong trader consensus around the 1-2% range.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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