Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP forecasts, now clustered around 1.2-1.3 percent by institutes including Kiel, IW, and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half momentum with Q1 and Q2 quarter-on-quarter gains of 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent. This underpins trader emphasis on the 1.3 percent-plus Q3 bucket despite headwinds. Elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, persistent 2.7 percent inflation eroding real wages, and temporary Rhine low-water disruptions are expected to limit Q3 expansion to around 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. Expansionary fiscal measures on defense and infrastructure, alongside improving business sentiment and export trends, provide offsetting support ahead of the October flash release. Market-implied odds capture this balance between H1 carryover and near-term fragility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGermany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
1.3%+ 43%
0.7-0.9% 39%
1.0-1.2% 20%
≤0.0% <1%
$45,930 Wol.
$45,930 Wol.
Oct 30, 2026
≤0.0%
1%
0.1-0.3%
1%
0.4-0.6%
1%
0.7-0.9%
39%
1.0-1.2%
20%
1.3%+
43%
1.3%+ 43%
0.7-0.9% 39%
1.0-1.2% 20%
≤0.0% <1%
$45,930 Wol.
$45,930 Wol.
Oct 30, 2026
≤0.0%
$1,908 Wol.
1%
0.1-0.3%
$2,032 Wol.
1%
0.4-0.6%
$1,089 Wol.
1%
0.7-0.9%
$7,857 Wol.
39%
1.0-1.2%
$24,997 Wol.
20%
1.3%+
$8,046 Wol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP forecasts, now clustered around 1.2-1.3 percent by institutes including Kiel, IW, and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half momentum with Q1 and Q2 quarter-on-quarter gains of 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent. This underpins trader emphasis on the 1.3 percent-plus Q3 bucket despite headwinds. Elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, persistent 2.7 percent inflation eroding real wages, and temporary Rhine low-water disruptions are expected to limit Q3 expansion to around 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. Expansionary fiscal measures on defense and infrastructure, alongside improving business sentiment and export trends, provide offsetting support ahead of the October flash release. Market-implied odds capture this balance between H1 carryover and near-term fragility.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$45,930Data zakończenia
Oct 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP forecasts, now clustered around 1.2-1.3 percent by institutes including Kiel, IW, and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half momentum with Q1 and Q2 quarter-on-quarter gains of 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent. This underpins trader emphasis on the 1.3 percent-plus Q3 bucket despite headwinds. Elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, persistent 2.7 percent inflation eroding real wages, and temporary Rhine low-water disruptions are expected to limit Q3 expansion to around 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. Expansionary fiscal measures on defense and infrastructure, alongside improving business sentiment and export trends, provide offsetting support ahead of the October flash release. Market-implied odds capture this balance between H1 carryover and near-term fragility.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$45,930Data zakończenia
Oct 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP forecasts, now clustered around 1.2-1.3 percent by institutes including Kiel, IW, and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half momentum with Q1 and Q2 quarter-on-quarter gains of 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent. This underpins trader emphasis on the 1.3 percent-plus Q3 bucket despite headwinds. Elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, persistent 2.7 percent inflation eroding real wages, and temporary Rhine low-water disruptions are expected to limit Q3 expansion to around 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. Expansionary fiscal measures on defense and infrastructure, alongside improving business sentiment and export trends, provide offsetting support ahead of the October flash release. Market-implied odds capture this balance between H1 carryover and near-term fragility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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