Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments have shaped trader sentiment around 2026 real GDP growth, with the market-implied odds favoring outcomes above 2.5 percent. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s second estimate showed Q1 2026 annualized growth revised lower to 1.6 percent from the 2.0 percent advance reading, reflecting weaker consumer spending and investment amid elevated energy costs and tariff effects following the late-2025 government shutdown. Offsetting factors include fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and expensing provisions, which private-sector forecasts such as those from the Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters and CBO project will lift full-year growth toward 2.2–2.5 percent. Geopolitical pressures on commodity prices and moderating consumer momentum introduce downside risks, keeping the distribution of probabilities centered on modest expansion while leaving room for upside surprises in subsequent quarterly releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 45%
1.5–2.0% 17.7%
2.0–2.5% 14%
1.0–1.5% 12.3%
$30,014 Wol.
$30,014 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
18%
2.0–2.5%
14%
>2.5%
45%
>2.5% 45%
1.5–2.0% 17.7%
2.0–2.5% 14%
1.0–1.5% 12.3%
$30,014 Wol.
$30,014 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$4,111 Wol.
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,518 Wol.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,936 Wol.
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,978 Wol.
18%
2.0–2.5%
$2,150 Wol.
14%
>2.5%
$4,320 Wol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments have shaped trader sentiment around 2026 real GDP growth, with the market-implied odds favoring outcomes above 2.5 percent. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s second estimate showed Q1 2026 annualized growth revised lower to 1.6 percent from the 2.0 percent advance reading, reflecting weaker consumer spending and investment amid elevated energy costs and tariff effects following the late-2025 government shutdown. Offsetting factors include fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and expensing provisions, which private-sector forecasts such as those from the Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters and CBO project will lift full-year growth toward 2.2–2.5 percent. Geopolitical pressures on commodity prices and moderating consumer momentum introduce downside risks, keeping the distribution of probabilities centered on modest expansion while leaving room for upside surprises in subsequent quarterly releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$30,014Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments have shaped trader sentiment around 2026 real GDP growth, with the market-implied odds favoring outcomes above 2.5 percent. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s second estimate showed Q1 2026 annualized growth revised lower to 1.6 percent from the 2.0 percent advance reading, reflecting weaker consumer spending and investment amid elevated energy costs and tariff effects following the late-2025 government shutdown. Offsetting factors include fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and expensing provisions, which private-sector forecasts such as those from the Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters and CBO project will lift full-year growth toward 2.2–2.5 percent. Geopolitical pressures on commodity prices and moderating consumer momentum introduce downside risks, keeping the distribution of probabilities centered on modest expansion while leaving room for upside surprises in subsequent quarterly releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$30,014Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments have shaped trader sentiment around 2026 real GDP growth, with the market-implied odds favoring outcomes above 2.5 percent. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s second estimate showed Q1 2026 annualized growth revised lower to 1.6 percent from the 2.0 percent advance reading, reflecting weaker consumer spending and investment amid elevated energy costs and tariff effects following the late-2025 government shutdown. Offsetting factors include fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and expensing provisions, which private-sector forecasts such as those from the Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters and CBO project will lift full-year growth toward 2.2–2.5 percent. Geopolitical pressures on commodity prices and moderating consumer momentum introduce downside risks, keeping the distribution of probabilities centered on modest expansion while leaving room for upside surprises in subsequent quarterly releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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