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Gospodarka·Polityka Gospodarcza

GDP growth in 2026

icon for GDP growth in 2026
Gospodarka·Polityka Gospodarcza

GDP growth in 2026

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

>2.5% 47%

1.5–2.0% 18.6%

2.0–2.5% 18%

1.0–1.5% 11.9%

Polymarket

$30,011 Wol.

>2.5% 47%

1.5–2.0% 18.6%

2.0–2.5% 18%

1.0–1.5% 11.9%

Polymarket

$30,011 Wol.

<0.5%

$4,110 Wol.

5%

0.5–1.0%

$15,517 Wol.

5%

1.0–1.5%

$1,936 Wol.

12%

1.5–2.0%

$1,978 Wol.

19%

2.0–2.5%

$2,150 Wol.

18%

>2.5%

$4,320 Wol.

47%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data, including the Q1 2026 GDP second estimate of 1.6% annualized growth, alongside fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and a rebound in activity following late-2025 disruptions, underpin trader positioning favoring GDP expansion above 2.5%. Analyst projections from sources such as the Congressional Budget Office and Deloitte cluster near 2.2% for the full year, reflecting carryover momentum from stronger 2025 performance and elevated business investment, particularly in AI-related areas. Offsetting pressures from higher tariffs, reduced net migration weighing on labor supply and consumer spending, and persistent inflation risks from energy prices have tempered expectations for even stronger outcomes, while supporting the market-implied consensus that moderate-to-solid growth remains the base case amid a resilient but cooling labor market with unemployment near 4.3%.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$30,011
Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data, including the Q1 2026 GDP second estimate of 1.6% annualized growth, alongside fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and a rebound in activity following late-2025 disruptions, underpin trader positioning favoring GDP expansion above 2.5%. Analyst projections from sources such as the Congressional Budget Office and Deloitte cluster near 2.2% for the full year, reflecting carryover momentum from stronger 2025 performance and elevated business investment, particularly in AI-related areas. Offsetting pressures from higher tariffs, reduced net migration weighing on labor supply and consumer spending, and persistent inflation risks from energy prices have tempered expectations for even stronger outcomes, while supporting the market-implied consensus that moderate-to-solid growth remains the base case amid a resilient but cooling labor market with unemployment near 4.3%.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$30,011
Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Często zadawane pytania

"GDP growth in 2026" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 6 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to ">2.5%" z 47%, za nim "1.5–2.0%" z 19%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 47¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 47% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "GDP growth in 2026" wygenerował $30K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Nov 12, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "GDP growth in 2026", przeglądaj 6 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "GDP growth in 2026" jest ">2.5%" z 47%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 47% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "1.5–2.0%" z 19%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "GDP growth in 2026" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.