Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1’s 2.1% and expectations, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% annual outcomes for full-year 2026. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act is expected to lift consumer spending and investment, while higher tariffs and softer labor-market trends act as offsets. Market-implied odds remain closely split because the net effect of these forces is uncertain, with upcoming data on consumer outlays, capital spending, and any further Fed communications likely to shift probabilities between the leading ranges.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
1.5–2.0% 39.2%
2.0–2.5% 33%
>2.5% 16%
<0.5% 9.7%
$55,318 Wol.
$55,318 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
3%
1.5–2.0%
39%
2.0–2.5%
33%
>2.5%
16%
1.5–2.0% 39.2%
2.0–2.5% 33%
>2.5% 16%
<0.5% 9.7%
$55,318 Wol.
$55,318 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$7,320 Wol.
10%
0.5–1.0%
$16,574 Wol.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$3,392 Wol.
3%
1.5–2.0%
$5,491 Wol.
39%
2.0–2.5%
$6,927 Wol.
33%
>2.5%
$15,614 Wol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1’s 2.1% and expectations, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% annual outcomes for full-year 2026. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act is expected to lift consumer spending and investment, while higher tariffs and softer labor-market trends act as offsets. Market-implied odds remain closely split because the net effect of these forces is uncertain, with upcoming data on consumer outlays, capital spending, and any further Fed communications likely to shift probabilities between the leading ranges.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$55,318Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1’s 2.1% and expectations, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% annual outcomes for full-year 2026. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act is expected to lift consumer spending and investment, while higher tariffs and softer labor-market trends act as offsets. Market-implied odds remain closely split because the net effect of these forces is uncertain, with upcoming data on consumer outlays, capital spending, and any further Fed communications likely to shift probabilities between the leading ranges.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$55,318Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below Q1’s 2.1% and expectations, has anchored trader sentiment toward the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% annual outcomes for full-year 2026. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act is expected to lift consumer spending and investment, while higher tariffs and softer labor-market trends act as offsets. Market-implied odds remain closely split because the net effect of these forces is uncertain, with upcoming data on consumer outlays, capital spending, and any further Fed communications likely to shift probabilities between the leading ranges.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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