Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.5% annualized, below the 2.1% pace in Q1 and consensus expectations, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.5% range for full-year expansion. Cooling consumer momentum, a widening trade drag, and softer nonresidential investment have offset fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and a shift toward investment-led activity. With the Fed holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid sticky inflation near 3.5% year-over-year and a gradually softening labor market, market-implied odds reflect balanced risks between modest rebound and further deceleration. Key swing factors include upcoming Q3 GDP data, tariff effects on net exports, and any FOMC signals on policy through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
1.5–2.0% 39.0%
2.0–2.5% 33%
>2.5% 17%
<0.5% 9.3%
$55,318 Wol.
$55,318 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
9%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
3%
1.5–2.0%
39%
2.0–2.5%
33%
>2.5%
17%
1.5–2.0% 39.0%
2.0–2.5% 33%
>2.5% 17%
<0.5% 9.3%
$55,318 Wol.
$55,318 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$7,320 Wol.
9%
0.5–1.0%
$16,574 Wol.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$3,392 Wol.
3%
1.5–2.0%
$5,491 Wol.
39%
2.0–2.5%
$6,927 Wol.
33%
>2.5%
$15,614 Wol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.5% annualized, below the 2.1% pace in Q1 and consensus expectations, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.5% range for full-year expansion. Cooling consumer momentum, a widening trade drag, and softer nonresidential investment have offset fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and a shift toward investment-led activity. With the Fed holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid sticky inflation near 3.5% year-over-year and a gradually softening labor market, market-implied odds reflect balanced risks between modest rebound and further deceleration. Key swing factors include upcoming Q3 GDP data, tariff effects on net exports, and any FOMC signals on policy through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$55,318Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.5% annualized, below the 2.1% pace in Q1 and consensus expectations, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.5% range for full-year expansion. Cooling consumer momentum, a widening trade drag, and softer nonresidential investment have offset fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and a shift toward investment-led activity. With the Fed holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid sticky inflation near 3.5% year-over-year and a gradually softening labor market, market-implied odds reflect balanced risks between modest rebound and further deceleration. Key swing factors include upcoming Q3 GDP data, tariff effects on net exports, and any FOMC signals on policy through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$55,318Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.5% annualized, below the 2.1% pace in Q1 and consensus expectations, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.5% range for full-year expansion. Cooling consumer momentum, a widening trade drag, and softer nonresidential investment have offset fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and a shift toward investment-led activity. With the Fed holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid sticky inflation near 3.5% year-over-year and a gradually softening labor market, market-implied odds reflect balanced risks between modest rebound and further deceleration. Key swing factors include upcoming Q3 GDP data, tariff effects on net exports, and any FOMC signals on policy through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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