Polymarket traders' 93.3% implied probability for no negative GDP growth in 2026 reflects strong consensus on a soft landing, anchored by Q4 2025 real GDP expanding at a 0.5% annualized rate—positive despite downward revision—and resilient labor markets with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Moderating core PCE inflation near 2% has enabled Federal Reserve rate cuts, bolstering consumer spending and business investment amid forecasts like CBO's 2.2% full-year growth. This skin-in-the-game sentiment contrasts broader recession odds around 30% on related markets. Realistic challenges include Q1 2026 GDP release (due late April), escalating trade tensions, or weakening nonfarm payrolls that could tip into contraction if below 100,000 monthly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$21,296 Wol.
$21,296 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
$21,296 Wol.
$21,296 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders' 93.3% implied probability for no negative GDP growth in 2026 reflects strong consensus on a soft landing, anchored by Q4 2025 real GDP expanding at a 0.5% annualized rate—positive despite downward revision—and resilient labor markets with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Moderating core PCE inflation near 2% has enabled Federal Reserve rate cuts, bolstering consumer spending and business investment amid forecasts like CBO's 2.2% full-year growth. This skin-in-the-game sentiment contrasts broader recession odds around 30% on related markets. Realistic challenges include Q1 2026 GDP release (due late April), escalating trade tensions, or weakening nonfarm payrolls that could tip into contraction if below 100,000 monthly.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,296Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders' 93.3% implied probability for no negative GDP growth in 2026 reflects strong consensus on a soft landing, anchored by Q4 2025 real GDP expanding at a 0.5% annualized rate—positive despite downward revision—and resilient labor markets with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Moderating core PCE inflation near 2% has enabled Federal Reserve rate cuts, bolstering consumer spending and business investment amid forecasts like CBO's 2.2% full-year growth. This skin-in-the-game sentiment contrasts broader recession odds around 30% on related markets. Realistic challenges include Q1 2026 GDP release (due late April), escalating trade tensions, or weakening nonfarm payrolls that could tip into contraction if below 100,000 monthly.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Wolumen
$21,296Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders' 93.3% implied probability for no negative GDP growth in 2026 reflects strong consensus on a soft landing, anchored by Q4 2025 real GDP expanding at a 0.5% annualized rate—positive despite downward revision—and resilient labor markets with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Moderating core PCE inflation near 2% has enabled Federal Reserve rate cuts, bolstering consumer spending and business investment amid forecasts like CBO's 2.2% full-year growth. This skin-in-the-game sentiment contrasts broader recession odds around 30% on related markets. Realistic challenges include Q1 2026 GDP release (due late April), escalating trade tensions, or weakening nonfarm payrolls that could tip into contraction if below 100,000 monthly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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