Recent small-bank resolutions underscore limited near-term systemic stress. Two FDIC-insured institutions failed in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets) on January 30 and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia ($288 million assets) on May 1—both resolved swiftly with deposits transferred and no contagion to larger peers. These failures stemmed from concentrated credit losses and commercial real estate exposure rather than broad liquidity or capital shortfalls. Major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, BMO, and Truist trade at low implied failure probabilities through June 30, reflecting strong capital buffers, diversified balance sheets, and the absence of acute macroeconomic shocks. The Federal Reserve’s 2026 stress-test scenarios, released earlier this year, further support resilience among systemically important institutions, with no immediate catalysts like FOMC policy shifts or major earnings surprises expected before month-end to alter the current market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$534,653 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
Santander
2%
BMO
2%
US Bank
1%
Truist
1%
Scotiabank
1%
KeyBank
1%
Lloyds
1%
Deutsche Bank
1%
Citigroup
1%
Bank of America
1%
BNP Paribas
1%
JPMorgan Chase
1%
Morgan Stanley
1%
UBS
1%
HSBC
1%
Wells Fargo
1%
RBC
1%
BNY
1%
Goldman Sachs
1%
$534,653 Wol.
Santander
$2,713 Wol.
2%
BMO
$1,339 Wol.
2%
US Bank
$1,371 Wol.
1%
Truist
$669 Wol.
1%
Scotiabank
$48,447 Wol.
1%
KeyBank
$1,446 Wol.
1%
Lloyds
$675 Wol.
1%
Deutsche Bank
$171,688 Wol.
1%
Citigroup
$12,517 Wol.
1%
Bank of America
$771 Wol.
1%
BNP Paribas
$24,144 Wol.
1%
JPMorgan Chase
$150,317 Wol.
1%
Morgan Stanley
$1,235 Wol.
1%
UBS
$38,985 Wol.
1%
HSBC
$41,407 Wol.
1%
Wells Fargo
$1,061 Wol.
1%
RBC
$461 Wol.
1%
BNY
$462 Wol.
1%
Goldman Sachs
$34,945 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent small-bank resolutions underscore limited near-term systemic stress. Two FDIC-insured institutions failed in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets) on January 30 and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia ($288 million assets) on May 1—both resolved swiftly with deposits transferred and no contagion to larger peers. These failures stemmed from concentrated credit losses and commercial real estate exposure rather than broad liquidity or capital shortfalls. Major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, BMO, and Truist trade at low implied failure probabilities through June 30, reflecting strong capital buffers, diversified balance sheets, and the absence of acute macroeconomic shocks. The Federal Reserve’s 2026 stress-test scenarios, released earlier this year, further support resilience among systemically important institutions, with no immediate catalysts like FOMC policy shifts or major earnings surprises expected before month-end to alter the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$534,653Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent small-bank resolutions underscore limited near-term systemic stress. Two FDIC-insured institutions failed in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets) on January 30 and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia ($288 million assets) on May 1—both resolved swiftly with deposits transferred and no contagion to larger peers. These failures stemmed from concentrated credit losses and commercial real estate exposure rather than broad liquidity or capital shortfalls. Major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, BMO, and Truist trade at low implied failure probabilities through June 30, reflecting strong capital buffers, diversified balance sheets, and the absence of acute macroeconomic shocks. The Federal Reserve’s 2026 stress-test scenarios, released earlier this year, further support resilience among systemically important institutions, with no immediate catalysts like FOMC policy shifts or major earnings surprises expected before month-end to alter the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$534,653Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent small-bank resolutions underscore limited near-term systemic stress. Two FDIC-insured institutions failed in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets) on January 30 and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia ($288 million assets) on May 1—both resolved swiftly with deposits transferred and no contagion to larger peers. These failures stemmed from concentrated credit losses and commercial real estate exposure rather than broad liquidity or capital shortfalls. Major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, BMO, and Truist trade at low implied failure probabilities through June 30, reflecting strong capital buffers, diversified balance sheets, and the absence of acute macroeconomic shocks. The Federal Reserve’s 2026 stress-test scenarios, released earlier this year, further support resilience among systemically important institutions, with no immediate catalysts like FOMC policy shifts or major earnings surprises expected before month-end to alter the current market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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