Recent data releases have created tight clustering in trader probabilities for Canada's July 2026 monthly GDP, with the Statistics Canada advance estimate showing essentially flat growth at 0.0% following June's 0.3% expansion and a robust 0.8% quarterly gain in Q2. Offsetting sector movements—gains in real estate and professional services balanced by declines in retail trade and manufacturing—alongside a narrowing July trade surplus and cooling August labor market readings, highlight uncertainty over whether momentum will persist or moderate amid U.S. tariff pressures and subdued population growth. Bank of Canada communications note the Q2 rebound while flagging risks to sustainability, leaving market-implied odds evenly distributed across contraction, flat, and moderate expansion scenarios ahead of the September 29 official release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCanada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
0.0 to 0.1% 29%
0.8%+ 29%
<0.0% 28%
0.6 to 0.7% 26%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 29, 2026
<0.0%
28%
0.0 to 0.1%
29%
0.2 to 0.3%
25%
0.4 to 0.5%
26%
0.6 to 0.7%
26%
0.8%+
29%
0.0 to 0.1% 29%
0.8%+ 29%
<0.0% 28%
0.6 to 0.7% 26%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 29, 2026
<0.0%
$0 Wol.
28%
0.0 to 0.1%
$20 Wol.
29%
0.2 to 0.3%
$0 Wol.
25%
0.4 to 0.5%
$0 Wol.
26%
0.6 to 0.7%
$0 Wol.
26%
0.8%+
$0 Wol.
29%
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Recent data releases have created tight clustering in trader probabilities for Canada's July 2026 monthly GDP, with the Statistics Canada advance estimate showing essentially flat growth at 0.0% following June's 0.3% expansion and a robust 0.8% quarterly gain in Q2. Offsetting sector movements—gains in real estate and professional services balanced by declines in retail trade and manufacturing—alongside a narrowing July trade surplus and cooling August labor market readings, highlight uncertainty over whether momentum will persist or moderate amid U.S. tariff pressures and subdued population growth. Bank of Canada communications note the Q2 rebound while flagging risks to sustainability, leaving market-implied odds evenly distributed across contraction, flat, and moderate expansion scenarios ahead of the September 29 official release.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Wolumen
$20Data zakończenia
Sep 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htmRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Recent data releases have created tight clustering in trader probabilities for Canada's July 2026 monthly GDP, with the Statistics Canada advance estimate showing essentially flat growth at 0.0% following June's 0.3% expansion and a robust 0.8% quarterly gain in Q2. Offsetting sector movements—gains in real estate and professional services balanced by declines in retail trade and manufacturing—alongside a narrowing July trade surplus and cooling August labor market readings, highlight uncertainty over whether momentum will persist or moderate amid U.S. tariff pressures and subdued population growth. Bank of Canada communications note the Q2 rebound while flagging risks to sustainability, leaving market-implied odds evenly distributed across contraction, flat, and moderate expansion scenarios ahead of the September 29 official release.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Wolumen
$20Data zakończenia
Sep 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htmRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent data releases have created tight clustering in trader probabilities for Canada's July 2026 monthly GDP, with the Statistics Canada advance estimate showing essentially flat growth at 0.0% following June's 0.3% expansion and a robust 0.8% quarterly gain in Q2. Offsetting sector movements—gains in real estate and professional services balanced by declines in retail trade and manufacturing—alongside a narrowing July trade surplus and cooling August labor market readings, highlight uncertainty over whether momentum will persist or moderate amid U.S. tariff pressures and subdued population growth. Bank of Canada communications note the Q2 rebound while flagging risks to sustainability, leaving market-implied odds evenly distributed across contraction, flat, and moderate expansion scenarios ahead of the September 29 official release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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