Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest upside skew for Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 3.5-3.9% bin leading at 29.9% implied probability, reflecting persistent core measures—CPI-trim at 2.4%, CPI-median at 2.3%, and CPI-common at 2.4% in February—despite headline YoY cooling to 1.8% from 2.3% in January. This divergence stems from anticipated energy price shocks, including oil above $100 per barrel and the GST/HST holiday's partial end, offsetting base effects amid the Bank of Canada's steady 2.25% policy rate as of March 18. Shelter and food pressures add upside risks, while a stronger Canadian dollar could cap imports; key catalysts include March CPI on April 20 and the April 29 FOMC-equivalent BoC decision, with wide dispersion signaling uncertainty over commodity trajectories and monetary policy path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
3.5-3.9% 24.1%
3.0-3.4% 20.2%
2.5–2.9% 13.0%
4.0%+ 10.6%
$15,800 Wol.
$15,800 Wol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
7%
1.0–1.4%
<1%
1.5–1.9%
5%
2.0–2.4%
5%
2.5–2.9%
17%
3.0-3.4%
20%
3.5-3.9%
30%
4.0%+
14%
3.5-3.9% 24.1%
3.0-3.4% 20.2%
2.5–2.9% 13.0%
4.0%+ 10.6%
$15,800 Wol.
$15,800 Wol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
$282 Wol.
7%
1.0–1.4%
$303 Wol.
<1%
1.5–1.9%
$568 Wol.
5%
2.0–2.4%
$350 Wol.
5%
2.5–2.9%
$464 Wol.
17%
3.0-3.4%
$13,245 Wol.
20%
3.5-3.9%
$263 Wol.
30%
4.0%+
$325 Wol.
14%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest upside skew for Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 3.5-3.9% bin leading at 29.9% implied probability, reflecting persistent core measures—CPI-trim at 2.4%, CPI-median at 2.3%, and CPI-common at 2.4% in February—despite headline YoY cooling to 1.8% from 2.3% in January. This divergence stems from anticipated energy price shocks, including oil above $100 per barrel and the GST/HST holiday's partial end, offsetting base effects amid the Bank of Canada's steady 2.25% policy rate as of March 18. Shelter and food pressures add upside risks, while a stronger Canadian dollar could cap imports; key catalysts include March CPI on April 20 and the April 29 FOMC-equivalent BoC decision, with wide dispersion signaling uncertainty over commodity trajectories and monetary policy path.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Rynek otwarty: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$15,800Data zakończenia
Jan 18, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest upside skew for Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 3.5-3.9% bin leading at 29.9% implied probability, reflecting persistent core measures—CPI-trim at 2.4%, CPI-median at 2.3%, and CPI-common at 2.4% in February—despite headline YoY cooling to 1.8% from 2.3% in January. This divergence stems from anticipated energy price shocks, including oil above $100 per barrel and the GST/HST holiday's partial end, offsetting base effects amid the Bank of Canada's steady 2.25% policy rate as of March 18. Shelter and food pressures add upside risks, while a stronger Canadian dollar could cap imports; key catalysts include March CPI on April 20 and the April 29 FOMC-equivalent BoC decision, with wide dispersion signaling uncertainty over commodity trajectories and monetary policy path.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Wolumen
$15,800Data zakończenia
Jan 18, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest upside skew for Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 3.5-3.9% bin leading at 29.9% implied probability, reflecting persistent core measures—CPI-trim at 2.4%, CPI-median at 2.3%, and CPI-common at 2.4% in February—despite headline YoY cooling to 1.8% from 2.3% in January. This divergence stems from anticipated energy price shocks, including oil above $100 per barrel and the GST/HST holiday's partial end, offsetting base effects amid the Bank of Canada's steady 2.25% policy rate as of March 18. Shelter and food pressures add upside risks, while a stronger Canadian dollar could cap imports; key catalysts include March CPI on April 20 and the April 29 FOMC-equivalent BoC decision, with wide dispersion signaling uncertainty over commodity trajectories and monetary policy path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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