Recent Middle East conflict-driven oil price spikes have lifted near-term Canadian headline CPI to 2.8% year-over-year in April 2026, prompting Bank of Canada projections for 2026 annual inflation near 2.3%, roughly 0.3 percentage points above earlier forecasts. Core measures remain contained around 2.1%, supported by soft growth, anchored expectations, and the central bank’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25%. Trader sentiment across the fragmented 1.5–3.9% range reflects uncertainty over conflict duration, potential tariff spillovers, and whether energy effects will broaden beyond headline readings before year-end. Upcoming May CPI data and any BoC communications on rate path risks could further influence positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCanada Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 46.9%
3.5-3.9% 33.7%
2.0–2.4% 20.0%
1.0–1.4% 5.9%
$16,471 Wol.
$16,471 Wol.
<1.0%
33%
1.0–1.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
39%
2.0–2.4%
21%
2.5–2.9%
34%
3.0-3.4%
32%
3.5-3.9%
34%
4.0%+
1%
2.5–2.9% 46.9%
3.5-3.9% 33.7%
2.0–2.4% 20.0%
1.0–1.4% 5.9%
$16,471 Wol.
$16,471 Wol.
<1.0%
33%
1.0–1.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
39%
2.0–2.4%
21%
2.5–2.9%
34%
3.0-3.4%
32%
3.5-3.9%
34%
4.0%+
1%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Rynek otwarty: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East conflict-driven oil price spikes have lifted near-term Canadian headline CPI to 2.8% year-over-year in April 2026, prompting Bank of Canada projections for 2026 annual inflation near 2.3%, roughly 0.3 percentage points above earlier forecasts. Core measures remain contained around 2.1%, supported by soft growth, anchored expectations, and the central bank’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25%. Trader sentiment across the fragmented 1.5–3.9% range reflects uncertainty over conflict duration, potential tariff spillovers, and whether energy effects will broaden beyond headline readings before year-end. Upcoming May CPI data and any BoC communications on rate path risks could further influence positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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