Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 5.50%, reflecting caution after March 2026 headline CPI accelerated to 4.59% year-over-year—the highest in 19 months—from 4.02% in February, driven by surging food prices like tomatoes and energy costs. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid the uptick, in a divided 3-2 vote, revised first-quarter inflation forecasts higher to 4.1% while anticipating convergence toward the 3% target later in the year. Elevated Citi survey median year-end 2026 expectations at 4.23% underscore sticky pressures, with April CPI data due around April 23 potentially influencing further positioning amid global commodity volatility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMexico Annual Inflation 2026
Mexico Annual Inflation 2026
5.50%+ 44%
3.50% to 3.99% 37.5%
<2.50% 22.5%
4.50% to 4.99% 19%
$34,809 Wol.
$34,809 Wol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
23%
2.50% to 2.99%
1%
3.00% to 3.49%
23%
3.50% to 3.99%
24%
4.00% to 4.49%
26%
4.50% to 4.99%
22%
5.00% to 5.49%
27%
5.50%+
44%
5.50%+ 44%
3.50% to 3.99% 37.5%
<2.50% 22.5%
4.50% to 4.99% 19%
$34,809 Wol.
$34,809 Wol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$0 Wol.
23%
2.50% to 2.99%
$0 Wol.
1%
3.00% to 3.49%
$25,671 Wol.
23%
3.50% to 3.99%
$344 Wol.
24%
4.00% to 4.49%
$357 Wol.
26%
4.50% to 4.99%
$3,063 Wol.
22%
5.00% to 5.49%
$401 Wol.
27%
5.50%+
$4,972 Wol.
44%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 5.50%, reflecting caution after March 2026 headline CPI accelerated to 4.59% year-over-year—the highest in 19 months—from 4.02% in February, driven by surging food prices like tomatoes and energy costs. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid the uptick, in a divided 3-2 vote, revised first-quarter inflation forecasts higher to 4.1% while anticipating convergence toward the 3% target later in the year. Elevated Citi survey median year-end 2026 expectations at 4.23% underscore sticky pressures, with April CPI data due around April 23 potentially influencing further positioning amid global commodity volatility.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Rynek otwarty: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Wolumen
$34,809Data zakończenia
Jan 8, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 5.50%, reflecting caution after March 2026 headline CPI accelerated to 4.59% year-over-year—the highest in 19 months—from 4.02% in February, driven by surging food prices like tomatoes and energy costs. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid the uptick, in a divided 3-2 vote, revised first-quarter inflation forecasts higher to 4.1% while anticipating convergence toward the 3% target later in the year. Elevated Citi survey median year-end 2026 expectations at 4.23% underscore sticky pressures, with April CPI data due around April 23 potentially influencing further positioning amid global commodity volatility.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Wolumen
$34,809Data zakończenia
Jan 8, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 5.50%, reflecting caution after March 2026 headline CPI accelerated to 4.59% year-over-year—the highest in 19 months—from 4.02% in February, driven by surging food prices like tomatoes and energy costs. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid the uptick, in a divided 3-2 vote, revised first-quarter inflation forecasts higher to 4.1% while anticipating convergence toward the 3% target later in the year. Elevated Citi survey median year-end 2026 expectations at 4.23% underscore sticky pressures, with April CPI data due around April 23 potentially influencing further positioning amid global commodity volatility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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