**Traders see little likelihood of Emmanuel Macron calling a referendum by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any confirmed presidential decree or procedural trigger under Article 11 or 89.** Macron has repeatedly favored the parliamentary route for priority measures, most recently directing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu in mid-August 2026 to prepare a revised, constitutionally compliant bill on restricting social media for under-15s after the Constitutional Council struck down the original version on August 14. That effort targets spring 2027 passage rather than direct popular consultation. Earlier signals around the assisted-dying law, which advanced through parliament and received constitutional approval without a referendum, further illustrate the pattern. With the 2027 presidential election already scheduled for April and Macron’s second and final term concluding, the compressed timeline and lack of acute legislative deadlock make a late-year referendum improbable. Calls for one have come mainly from figures such as Gabriel Attal, not from the Élysée. The 92% implied probability for “No” aligns with this record of restraint and the current emphasis on legislative fixes over direct votes.