Traders are pricing 2026 global GDP growth near 3.0 percent amid elevated uncertainty from Middle East energy disruptions that have pushed oil and related commodity prices higher, weighing on consumer spending and corporate margins. Recent IMF projections hold steady at 3.0 percent while World Bank and UN estimates have been lowered to 2.5 percent, reflecting slower trade, higher inflation, and downside risks to emerging-market per-capita income. Offsetting support comes from AI-related capital expenditure and resilient labor markets in advanced economies, which help anchor the 3.0 percent bucket at 28 percent implied probability. With the two leading bins—≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent—separated by just 2.6 points, outcomes hinge on the duration of supply shocks, upcoming inflation prints, and any de-escalation that could lift the growth distribution toward the 3.1–3.2 percent range currently carrying lower odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCrescimento do PIB Mundial 2026
Crescimento do PIB Mundial 2026
≤2,9% 30.6%
3,0% 28.0%
3,1% 19.8%
3,4% 7.5%
$29,231 Vol.
$29,231 Vol.
15 jan 2027
≤2,9%
31%
3,0%
28%
3,1%
20%
3,2%
7%
3,3%
6%
3,4%
8%
3,5%
4%
3,6%
4%
3,7%+
1%
≤2,9% 30.6%
3,0% 28.0%
3,1% 19.8%
3,4% 7.5%
$29,231 Vol.
$29,231 Vol.
15 jan 2027
≤2,9%
$5,372 Vol.
31%
3,0%
$4,864 Vol.
28%
3,1%
$2,788 Vol.
20%
3,2%
$2,175 Vol.
7%
3,3%
$3,992 Vol.
6%
3,4%
$4,544 Vol.
8%
3,5%
$3,567 Vol.
4%
3,6%
$904 Vol.
4%
3,7%+
$1,026 Vol.
1%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Traders are pricing 2026 global GDP growth near 3.0 percent amid elevated uncertainty from Middle East energy disruptions that have pushed oil and related commodity prices higher, weighing on consumer spending and corporate margins. Recent IMF projections hold steady at 3.0 percent while World Bank and UN estimates have been lowered to 2.5 percent, reflecting slower trade, higher inflation, and downside risks to emerging-market per-capita income. Offsetting support comes from AI-related capital expenditure and resilient labor markets in advanced economies, which help anchor the 3.0 percent bucket at 28 percent implied probability. With the two leading bins—≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent—separated by just 2.6 points, outcomes hinge on the duration of supply shocks, upcoming inflation prints, and any de-escalation that could lift the growth distribution toward the 3.1–3.2 percent range currently carrying lower odds.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$29,231Data de Término
15 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Traders are pricing 2026 global GDP growth near 3.0 percent amid elevated uncertainty from Middle East energy disruptions that have pushed oil and related commodity prices higher, weighing on consumer spending and corporate margins. Recent IMF projections hold steady at 3.0 percent while World Bank and UN estimates have been lowered to 2.5 percent, reflecting slower trade, higher inflation, and downside risks to emerging-market per-capita income. Offsetting support comes from AI-related capital expenditure and resilient labor markets in advanced economies, which help anchor the 3.0 percent bucket at 28 percent implied probability. With the two leading bins—≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent—separated by just 2.6 points, outcomes hinge on the duration of supply shocks, upcoming inflation prints, and any de-escalation that could lift the growth distribution toward the 3.1–3.2 percent range currently carrying lower odds.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$29,231Data de Término
15 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders are pricing 2026 global GDP growth near 3.0 percent amid elevated uncertainty from Middle East energy disruptions that have pushed oil and related commodity prices higher, weighing on consumer spending and corporate margins. Recent IMF projections hold steady at 3.0 percent while World Bank and UN estimates have been lowered to 2.5 percent, reflecting slower trade, higher inflation, and downside risks to emerging-market per-capita income. Offsetting support comes from AI-related capital expenditure and resilient labor markets in advanced economies, which help anchor the 3.0 percent bucket at 28 percent implied probability. With the two leading bins—≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent—separated by just 2.6 points, outcomes hinge on the duration of supply shocks, upcoming inflation prints, and any de-escalation that could lift the growth distribution toward the 3.1–3.2 percent range currently carrying lower odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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