Recent downward revisions to 2026 global GDP forecasts, including the IMF’s April projection of 3.1 percent and the OECD’s March estimate of 2.9 percent, have anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched ≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent outcomes. Persistent trade tensions, a limited Middle East conflict, and softer leading indicators such as manufacturing PMI readings and export data have tempered optimism, while S&P Global’s May outlook of 2.2 percent and FocusEconomics consensus near 2.5 percent reflect further caution. These factors create competitive dynamics between scenarios of modest resilience driven by technology investment and policy support versus downside risks from geopolitical escalation and fiscal strains. The next major catalyst will likely be the IMF’s July update or June inflation and labor market releases that could shift implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCrescimento do PIB Mundial 2026
Crescimento do PIB Mundial 2026
3,0% 41.9%
3,1% 32.4%
≤2,9% 18%
3,2% 13.8%
$17,704 Vol.
$17,704 Vol.
15 jan 2027
≤2,9%
39%
3,0%
42%
3,1%
32%
3,2%
29%
3,3%
16%
3,4%
6%
3,5%
5%
3,6%
4%
3,7%+
5%
3,0% 41.9%
3,1% 32.4%
≤2,9% 18%
3,2% 13.8%
$17,704 Vol.
$17,704 Vol.
15 jan 2027
≤2,9%
$3,766 Vol.
39%
3,0%
$481 Vol.
42%
3,1%
$470 Vol.
32%
3,2%
$1,691 Vol.
29%
3,3%
$3,423 Vol.
16%
3,4%
$3,533 Vol.
6%
3,5%
$3,100 Vol.
5%
3,6%
$452 Vol.
4%
3,7%+
$789 Vol.
5%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent downward revisions to 2026 global GDP forecasts, including the IMF’s April projection of 3.1 percent and the OECD’s March estimate of 2.9 percent, have anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched ≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent outcomes. Persistent trade tensions, a limited Middle East conflict, and softer leading indicators such as manufacturing PMI readings and export data have tempered optimism, while S&P Global’s May outlook of 2.2 percent and FocusEconomics consensus near 2.5 percent reflect further caution. These factors create competitive dynamics between scenarios of modest resilience driven by technology investment and policy support versus downside risks from geopolitical escalation and fiscal strains. The next major catalyst will likely be the IMF’s July update or June inflation and labor market releases that could shift implied probabilities.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$17,704Data de Término
15 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent downward revisions to 2026 global GDP forecasts, including the IMF’s April projection of 3.1 percent and the OECD’s March estimate of 2.9 percent, have anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched ≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent outcomes. Persistent trade tensions, a limited Middle East conflict, and softer leading indicators such as manufacturing PMI readings and export data have tempered optimism, while S&P Global’s May outlook of 2.2 percent and FocusEconomics consensus near 2.5 percent reflect further caution. These factors create competitive dynamics between scenarios of modest resilience driven by technology investment and policy support versus downside risks from geopolitical escalation and fiscal strains. The next major catalyst will likely be the IMF’s July update or June inflation and labor market releases that could shift implied probabilities.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$17,704Data de Término
15 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent downward revisions to 2026 global GDP forecasts, including the IMF’s April projection of 3.1 percent and the OECD’s March estimate of 2.9 percent, have anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched ≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent outcomes. Persistent trade tensions, a limited Middle East conflict, and softer leading indicators such as manufacturing PMI readings and export data have tempered optimism, while S&P Global’s May outlook of 2.2 percent and FocusEconomics consensus near 2.5 percent reflect further caution. These factors create competitive dynamics between scenarios of modest resilience driven by technology investment and policy support versus downside risks from geopolitical escalation and fiscal strains. The next major catalyst will likely be the IMF’s July update or June inflation and labor market releases that could shift implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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