Traders have priced the 2026 global GDP growth outcome in a tight band around 3.0–3.1 percent, reflecting the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline of 3.1 percent under assumptions of limited Middle East conflict and moderate energy-price increases. This consensus stands above several other institutional forecasts, including the World Bank and UN at 2.5 percent, FocusEconomics at 2.52 percent, and Goldman Sachs at 2.9 percent, underscoring the market’s weighting toward the IMF’s relatively resilient scenario. Recent first-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.6 percent annualized, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation pressures, supports the closely matched probabilities between the two leading outcomes while capping implied odds for 3.3 percent or higher. Key near-term catalysts include further energy-price developments, any escalation in trade tensions, and the next round of major-economy data releases that could shift the balance between downside and upside risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCrescimento do PIB Mundial 2026
Crescimento do PIB Mundial 2026
3,0% 40.2%
3,1% 30.1%
≤2,9% 18%
3,2% 13.8%
$17,823 Vol.
$17,823 Vol.
15 jan 2027
≤2,9%
21%
3,0%
40%
3,1%
40%
3,2%
30%
3,3%
16%
3,4%
5%
3,5%
2%
3,6%
2%
3,7%+
5%
3,0% 40.2%
3,1% 30.1%
≤2,9% 18%
3,2% 13.8%
$17,823 Vol.
$17,823 Vol.
15 jan 2027
≤2,9%
$3,777 Vol.
21%
3,0%
$492 Vol.
40%
3,1%
$481 Vol.
40%
3,2%
$1,702 Vol.
30%
3,3%
$3,445 Vol.
16%
3,4%
$3,544 Vol.
5%
3,5%
$3,111 Vol.
2%
3,6%
$471 Vol.
2%
3,7%+
$800 Vol.
5%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Traders have priced the 2026 global GDP growth outcome in a tight band around 3.0–3.1 percent, reflecting the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline of 3.1 percent under assumptions of limited Middle East conflict and moderate energy-price increases. This consensus stands above several other institutional forecasts, including the World Bank and UN at 2.5 percent, FocusEconomics at 2.52 percent, and Goldman Sachs at 2.9 percent, underscoring the market’s weighting toward the IMF’s relatively resilient scenario. Recent first-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.6 percent annualized, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation pressures, supports the closely matched probabilities between the two leading outcomes while capping implied odds for 3.3 percent or higher. Key near-term catalysts include further energy-price developments, any escalation in trade tensions, and the next round of major-economy data releases that could shift the balance between downside and upside risks.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$17,823Data de Término
15 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Traders have priced the 2026 global GDP growth outcome in a tight band around 3.0–3.1 percent, reflecting the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline of 3.1 percent under assumptions of limited Middle East conflict and moderate energy-price increases. This consensus stands above several other institutional forecasts, including the World Bank and UN at 2.5 percent, FocusEconomics at 2.52 percent, and Goldman Sachs at 2.9 percent, underscoring the market’s weighting toward the IMF’s relatively resilient scenario. Recent first-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.6 percent annualized, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation pressures, supports the closely matched probabilities between the two leading outcomes while capping implied odds for 3.3 percent or higher. Key near-term catalysts include further energy-price developments, any escalation in trade tensions, and the next round of major-economy data releases that could shift the balance between downside and upside risks.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$17,823Data de Término
15 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders have priced the 2026 global GDP growth outcome in a tight band around 3.0–3.1 percent, reflecting the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline of 3.1 percent under assumptions of limited Middle East conflict and moderate energy-price increases. This consensus stands above several other institutional forecasts, including the World Bank and UN at 2.5 percent, FocusEconomics at 2.52 percent, and Goldman Sachs at 2.9 percent, underscoring the market’s weighting toward the IMF’s relatively resilient scenario. Recent first-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.6 percent annualized, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation pressures, supports the closely matched probabilities between the two leading outcomes while capping implied odds for 3.3 percent or higher. Key near-term catalysts include further energy-price developments, any escalation in trade tensions, and the next round of major-economy data releases that could shift the balance between downside and upside risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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