Recent UK economic data and forecaster consensus have anchored trader sentiment around modest expansion for 2026 annual GDP growth. Official figures showed 0.6% quarterly growth in Q1 followed by 0.4% in Q2, but the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF Article IV projections both center 2026 growth at 1.0–1.1%, citing the Middle East conflict’s energy price shock, which has lifted CPI toward 3.3–3.5% and eroded real incomes while tightening financial conditions. HM Treasury’s August survey of independent forecasts aligns at 1.1%, with most estimates clustered between 0.9% and 1.2%. These developments explain the 87.2% implied probability on the 1-2% outcome, while the slim odds on sub-1% or 2%+ ranges reflect limited scope for sharp deviations absent major policy or geopolitical shifts before year-end data releases.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1-2% 87.2%
0-1% 12%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 1.1%
$83,224 Vol.
$83,224 Vol.
11 fev 2027
<0
1%
0-1%
12%
1-2%
87%
2-3%
1%
3-4%
1%
4-5%
<1%
5% ou mais
<1%
1-2% 87.2%
0-1% 12%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 1.1%
$83,224 Vol.
$83,224 Vol.
11 fev 2027
<0
$11,936 Vol.
1%
0-1%
$20,120 Vol.
12%
1-2%
$30,065 Vol.
87%
2-3%
$4,696 Vol.
1%
3-4%
$3,628 Vol.
1%
4-5%
$8,775 Vol.
<1%
5% ou mais
$4,006 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK economic data and forecaster consensus have anchored trader sentiment around modest expansion for 2026 annual GDP growth. Official figures showed 0.6% quarterly growth in Q1 followed by 0.4% in Q2, but the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF Article IV projections both center 2026 growth at 1.0–1.1%, citing the Middle East conflict’s energy price shock, which has lifted CPI toward 3.3–3.5% and eroded real incomes while tightening financial conditions. HM Treasury’s August survey of independent forecasts aligns at 1.1%, with most estimates clustered between 0.9% and 1.2%. These developments explain the 87.2% implied probability on the 1-2% outcome, while the slim odds on sub-1% or 2%+ ranges reflect limited scope for sharp deviations absent major policy or geopolitical shifts before year-end data releases.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$83,224Data de Término
12 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK economic data and forecaster consensus have anchored trader sentiment around modest expansion for 2026 annual GDP growth. Official figures showed 0.6% quarterly growth in Q1 followed by 0.4% in Q2, but the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF Article IV projections both center 2026 growth at 1.0–1.1%, citing the Middle East conflict’s energy price shock, which has lifted CPI toward 3.3–3.5% and eroded real incomes while tightening financial conditions. HM Treasury’s August survey of independent forecasts aligns at 1.1%, with most estimates clustered between 0.9% and 1.2%. These developments explain the 87.2% implied probability on the 1-2% outcome, while the slim odds on sub-1% or 2%+ ranges reflect limited scope for sharp deviations absent major policy or geopolitical shifts before year-end data releases.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$83,224Data de Término
12 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK economic data and forecaster consensus have anchored trader sentiment around modest expansion for 2026 annual GDP growth. Official figures showed 0.6% quarterly growth in Q1 followed by 0.4% in Q2, but the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF Article IV projections both center 2026 growth at 1.0–1.1%, citing the Middle East conflict’s energy price shock, which has lifted CPI toward 3.3–3.5% and eroded real incomes while tightening financial conditions. HM Treasury’s August survey of independent forecasts aligns at 1.1%, with most estimates clustered between 0.9% and 1.2%. These developments explain the 87.2% implied probability on the 1-2% outcome, while the slim odds on sub-1% or 2%+ ranges reflect limited scope for sharp deviations absent major policy or geopolitical shifts before year-end data releases.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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