Strong consensus on positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, currently tracking near 2.0-2.3% across official projections and private forecasts, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent Q2 2026 data showed 1.5% annualized expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, shifting momentum toward business investment in AI and productivity tools, and lingering effects from 2025 fiscal measures. Stable labor conditions with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession signals have reinforced trader views, despite sticky core inflation keeping the Fed on hold. Tail risks that could still alter outcomes include sharper labor-market cooling triggering consumption weakness, energy-price shocks from geopolitical developments, or more severe tariff and immigration effects than currently priced in.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCrescimento negativo do PIB em 2026?
Crescimento negativo do PIB em 2026?
Sim
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
28 jan 2027
Sim
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
28 jan 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus on positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, currently tracking near 2.0-2.3% across official projections and private forecasts, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent Q2 2026 data showed 1.5% annualized expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, shifting momentum toward business investment in AI and productivity tools, and lingering effects from 2025 fiscal measures. Stable labor conditions with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession signals have reinforced trader views, despite sticky core inflation keeping the Fed on hold. Tail risks that could still alter outcomes include sharper labor-market cooling triggering consumption weakness, energy-price shocks from geopolitical developments, or more severe tariff and immigration effects than currently priced in.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus on positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, currently tracking near 2.0-2.3% across official projections and private forecasts, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent Q2 2026 data showed 1.5% annualized expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, shifting momentum toward business investment in AI and productivity tools, and lingering effects from 2025 fiscal measures. Stable labor conditions with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession signals have reinforced trader views, despite sticky core inflation keeping the Fed on hold. Tail risks that could still alter outcomes include sharper labor-market cooling triggering consumption weakness, energy-price shocks from geopolitical developments, or more severe tariff and immigration effects than currently priced in.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus on positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, currently tracking near 2.0-2.3% across official projections and private forecasts, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent Q2 2026 data showed 1.5% annualized expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, shifting momentum toward business investment in AI and productivity tools, and lingering effects from 2025 fiscal measures. Stable labor conditions with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession signals have reinforced trader views, despite sticky core inflation keeping the Fed on hold. Tail risks that could still alter outcomes include sharper labor-market cooling triggering consumption weakness, energy-price shocks from geopolitical developments, or more severe tariff and immigration effects than currently priced in.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions