Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 87.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026—revised from an initial 2.0% estimate but still well above the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace—driven by rebounds in consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government outlays. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2%, the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Deloitte at 2.2%, project full-year growth near or above 2%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment around 4.5%, ongoing AI-related capital spending, and fiscal support from prior tax measures. While tariffs and elevated energy prices pose downside risks, none of the latest institutional outlooks anticipate contraction, keeping recession probabilities low per New York Fed models. The final Q1 GDP release on June 25 and Q2 data will serve as near-term catalysts for trader sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCrescimento negativo do PIB em 2026?
Crescimento negativo do PIB em 2026?
Sim
$27,945 Vol.
$27,945 Vol.
29 jan 2027
Sim
$27,945 Vol.
$27,945 Vol.
29 jan 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 87.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026—revised from an initial 2.0% estimate but still well above the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace—driven by rebounds in consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government outlays. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2%, the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Deloitte at 2.2%, project full-year growth near or above 2%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment around 4.5%, ongoing AI-related capital spending, and fiscal support from prior tax measures. While tariffs and elevated energy prices pose downside risks, none of the latest institutional outlooks anticipate contraction, keeping recession probabilities low per New York Fed models. The final Q1 GDP release on June 25 and Q2 data will serve as near-term catalysts for trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$27,945Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 87.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026—revised from an initial 2.0% estimate but still well above the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace—driven by rebounds in consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government outlays. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2%, the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Deloitte at 2.2%, project full-year growth near or above 2%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment around 4.5%, ongoing AI-related capital spending, and fiscal support from prior tax measures. While tariffs and elevated energy prices pose downside risks, none of the latest institutional outlooks anticipate contraction, keeping recession probabilities low per New York Fed models. The final Q1 GDP release on June 25 and Q2 data will serve as near-term catalysts for trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$27,945Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 87.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026—revised from an initial 2.0% estimate but still well above the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace—driven by rebounds in consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government outlays. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2%, the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Deloitte at 2.2%, project full-year growth near or above 2%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment around 4.5%, ongoing AI-related capital spending, and fiscal support from prior tax measures. While tariffs and elevated energy prices pose downside risks, none of the latest institutional outlooks anticipate contraction, keeping recession probabilities low per New York Fed models. The final Q1 GDP release on June 25 and Q2 data will serve as near-term catalysts for trader sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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