Recent quarterly GDP prints, with Q2 2026 advancing at a 1.5% annualized rate following Q1's 1.6%, have tempered near-term momentum yet reinforced trader focus on the 2.0–2.5% annual outcome. Investment-led expansion, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, continues to offset softening consumer spending amid affordability pressures and tariff headwinds, aligning with consensus forecasts around 2.2% from sources such as the CBO and Conference Board. Fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures and resilient labor conditions further support the market-implied odds clustered in the 1.5–2.5% bands, while downside risks from higher energy prices and immigration policy remain priced at lower probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCrescimento do PIB em 2026
Crescimento do PIB em 2026
2,0–2,5% 36%
1,5–2,0% 25.0%
>2,5% 22%
1,0–1,5% 9.6%
$57,938 Vol.
$57,938 Vol.
29 jan 2027
<0,5%
7%
0,5–1,0%
3%
1,0–1,5%
10%
1,5–2,0%
25%
2,0–2,5%
36%
>2,5%
22%
2,0–2,5% 36%
1,5–2,0% 25.0%
>2,5% 22%
1,0–1,5% 9.6%
$57,938 Vol.
$57,938 Vol.
29 jan 2027
<0,5%
$7,439 Vol.
7%
0,5–1,0%
$17,161 Vol.
3%
1,0–1,5%
$3,814 Vol.
10%
1,5–2,0%
$6,602 Vol.
25%
2,0–2,5%
$7,023 Vol.
36%
>2,5%
$15,898 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly GDP prints, with Q2 2026 advancing at a 1.5% annualized rate following Q1's 1.6%, have tempered near-term momentum yet reinforced trader focus on the 2.0–2.5% annual outcome. Investment-led expansion, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, continues to offset softening consumer spending amid affordability pressures and tariff headwinds, aligning with consensus forecasts around 2.2% from sources such as the CBO and Conference Board. Fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures and resilient labor conditions further support the market-implied odds clustered in the 1.5–2.5% bands, while downside risks from higher energy prices and immigration policy remain priced at lower probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$57,938Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly GDP prints, with Q2 2026 advancing at a 1.5% annualized rate following Q1's 1.6%, have tempered near-term momentum yet reinforced trader focus on the 2.0–2.5% annual outcome. Investment-led expansion, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, continues to offset softening consumer spending amid affordability pressures and tariff headwinds, aligning with consensus forecasts around 2.2% from sources such as the CBO and Conference Board. Fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures and resilient labor conditions further support the market-implied odds clustered in the 1.5–2.5% bands, while downside risks from higher energy prices and immigration policy remain priced at lower probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$57,938Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent quarterly GDP prints, with Q2 2026 advancing at a 1.5% annualized rate following Q1's 1.6%, have tempered near-term momentum yet reinforced trader focus on the 2.0–2.5% annual outcome. Investment-led expansion, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, continues to offset softening consumer spending amid affordability pressures and tariff headwinds, aligning with consensus forecasts around 2.2% from sources such as the CBO and Conference Board. Fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures and resilient labor conditions further support the market-implied odds clustered in the 1.5–2.5% bands, while downside risks from higher energy prices and immigration policy remain priced at lower probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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