Elevated August 2026 CPI prints, with headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, alongside resilient payroll gains and wage pressures, anchor trader sentiment toward no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Polymarket odds reflect this consensus at 59% implied probability for holding the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range, ahead of a 23% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as markets price in limited scope for easing amid sticky goods and shelter costs. Recent hawkish signals from officials and stronger-than-expected growth data have reinforced the market-implied rate path versus prior cut expectations, though incoming September and December 2026 releases plus the dot plot could still shift probabilities ahead of the January decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNo change 58%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.3%
$71,022 Vol.
$71,022 Vol.
27 jan 2027
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
58%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
23%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
2%
No change 58%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.3%
$71,022 Vol.
$71,022 Vol.
27 jan 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Vol.
4%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Vol.
14%
No change
$21,181 Vol.
58%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$17,011 Vol.
23%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$3,974 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI prints, with headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, alongside resilient payroll gains and wage pressures, anchor trader sentiment toward no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Polymarket odds reflect this consensus at 59% implied probability for holding the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range, ahead of a 23% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as markets price in limited scope for easing amid sticky goods and shelter costs. Recent hawkish signals from officials and stronger-than-expected growth data have reinforced the market-implied rate path versus prior cut expectations, though incoming September and December 2026 releases plus the dot plot could still shift probabilities ahead of the January decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$71,022Data de Término
27 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI prints, with headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, alongside resilient payroll gains and wage pressures, anchor trader sentiment toward no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Polymarket odds reflect this consensus at 59% implied probability for holding the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range, ahead of a 23% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as markets price in limited scope for easing amid sticky goods and shelter costs. Recent hawkish signals from officials and stronger-than-expected growth data have reinforced the market-implied rate path versus prior cut expectations, though incoming September and December 2026 releases plus the dot plot could still shift probabilities ahead of the January decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$71,022Data de Término
27 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated August 2026 CPI prints, with headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, alongside resilient payroll gains and wage pressures, anchor trader sentiment toward no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Polymarket odds reflect this consensus at 59% implied probability for holding the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range, ahead of a 23% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as markets price in limited scope for easing amid sticky goods and shelter costs. Recent hawkish signals from officials and stronger-than-expected growth data have reinforced the market-implied rate path versus prior cut expectations, though incoming September and December 2026 releases plus the dot plot could still shift probabilities ahead of the January decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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