Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAumento de 25 pontos-base 50%
No change 41%
25 bps decrease 23%
50+ bps decrease 18%
NOVO
NOVO
27 jan 2027
50+ bps decrease
18%
25 bps decrease
23%
No change
41%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
50%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
16%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 50%
No change 41%
25 bps decrease 23%
50+ bps decrease 18%
NOVO
NOVO
27 jan 2027
50+ bps decrease
$0 Vol.
18%
25 bps decrease
$0 Vol.
23%
No change
$0 Vol.
41%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$0 Vol.
50%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$0 Vol.
16%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
27 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$0Data de Término
27 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, including the June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year-over-year after a 4.2% May print, alongside core measures near 2.6% and sticky PCE readings above the 2% target, have kept monetary policy expectations finely balanced for the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2-4.4% reflects a stable but gradually softening labor market, while market-implied forward rates suggest traders see roughly even odds of a 25 basis point cut, hike, or no change as participants weigh persistent price pressures against moderating growth. These closely matched probabilities around 50% for each outcome underscore uncertainty ahead of key releases such as July CPI, employment reports, and any further central bank communications that could shift the balance between rate cut expectations and tightening signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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