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FOMC previsões e probabilidades

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Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

100%

No change

$192M Vol.

$14M today

$26M Liq.

15

Ends em 1 dia

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

94%

No change

$11M Vol.

$279K today

$1M Liq.

Ends em cerca de 2 meses

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

85%

No change

$4M Vol.

$447K Liq.

Ends em 3 meses

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

100%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$667K Vol.

$122K Liq.

Ends em 1 dia

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

91%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$980K Vol.

$106K Liq.

Ends em cerca de 2 meses

What will Powell say during April Press Conference?

What will Powell say during April Press Conference?

98%

Good Afternoon

$135K Vol.

$44.9K Liq.

4

Ends em 1 dia

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

86%

1

$75.0K Vol.

$36.6K Liq.

Ends em 1 dia

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

71%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$9.1K Vol.

$134K Liq.

Ends em 3 meses

Fed rate hike by...?

Fed rate hike by...?

16%

September Meeting

$54.1K Vol.

$109K Liq.

Ends em 6 meses

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

40%

0 (0 bps)

$21M Vol.

$145K today

$2M Liq.

58

Ends em 8 meses

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

62%

December Meeting

$1M Vol.

$184K Liq.

17

Ends em cerca de 2 meses

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

57%

↓ 3.25%

$1M Vol.

$259K Liq.

5

Ends em 8 meses

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

39%

3.75%

$6M Vol.

$345K Liq.

6

Ends em 8 meses

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

10%

$3.8K Vol.

$4.3K Liq.

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

12%

$103K Vol.

$16.5K Liq.

Ends em 8 meses

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

80%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

$109K Vol.

$44.1K Liq.

Ends em 8 meses

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

97%

June 30

$22.9K Vol.

$19.3K Liq.

Ends em 2 meses

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

3%

$85.4K Vol.

$15.5K Liq.

Ends em 2 meses

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

82%

December 31

$175K Vol.

$33.6K Liq.

10

Ends em 8 meses

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

99%

Kevin Warsh

$43M Vol.

$406K today

$2M Liq.

87

Ends em 6 meses

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 119 active markets for FOMC that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed decision in April?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $282.8M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed decision in April?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed decision in April?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on FOMC predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.