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FOMC previsões e probabilidades

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Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

100%

No change

$212M Vol.

$16M today

$23M Liq.

16

Ends há cerca de 6 horas

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

94%

No change

$11M Vol.

$242K today

$1M Liq.

Ends em cerca de 2 meses

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

87%

No change

$4M Vol.

$116K today

$411K Liq.

Ends em 3 meses

What will Powell say during April Press Conference?

What will Powell say during April Press Conference?

98%

Good Afternoon

$178K Vol.

$198K Liq.

7

Ends há cerca de 6 horas

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

100%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$685K Vol.

$55.8K Liq.

Ends há cerca de 6 horas

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

90%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$988K Vol.

$44.9K Liq.

Ends em cerca de 2 meses

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

88%

1

$78.4K Vol.

$9.5K Liq.

Ends há cerca de 6 horas

Fed rate hike by...?

Fed rate hike by...?

21%

September Meeting

$56.3K Vol.

$31.7K Liq.

Ends em 6 meses

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

79%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$9.7K Vol.

$38.3K Liq.

Ends em 3 meses

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

47%

0 (0 bps)

$22M Vol.

$323K today

$899K Liq.

58

Ends em 8 meses

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

57%

December Meeting

$2M Vol.

$93.4K Liq.

17

Ends em cerca de 2 meses

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

43%

3.75%

$6M Vol.

$239K Liq.

6

Ends em 7 meses

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

63%

↓ 3.25%

$1M Vol.

$89.7K Liq.

5

Ends em 8 meses

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

10%

$103K Vol.

$5.3K Liq.

Ends em 8 meses

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

16%

Rick Rieder & Rate > 2.5%

$109K Vol.

$2.7K Liq.

Ends em 8 meses

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

8%

$3.8K Vol.

$1.6K Liq.

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 29?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 29?

98%

$685

$2.1K Vol.

$13.9K Liq.

Ends em cerca de 14 horas

What price will Bitcoin hit on April 29?

What price will Bitcoin hit on April 29?

100%

↑ 77,000

$444 Vol.

$44.0K Liq.

Ends em cerca de 22 horas

What will the Bitcoin implied volatility index hit by April 30?

What will the Bitcoin implied volatility index hit by April 30?

7%

↓ 40

$66.5K Vol.

$2.0K Liq.

2

Ends em 2 dias

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

50%

Up

$0 Vol.

$25.0K Liq.

Ends em cerca de 4 horas

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like FOMC.

Polymarket currently hosts 132 active markets for FOMC that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed decision in April?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $260.4M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed decision in April?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed decision in April?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on FOMC predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.