Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market, underscored by the strong May jobs report, are the main factors supporting the 63.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range has held steady through multiple FOMC meetings, with March SEP projections showing 2026 PCE inflation at 2.7% and unemployment near 4.4%. Recent Reuters polling indicates nearly 70% of economists expect rates unchanged through year-end, while futures markets price a roughly one-third chance of a hike. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision and incoming CPI and employment releases that could shift the balance toward or against tightening.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,917,624 Vol.
$1,917,624 Vol.
9 dez 2026
Sim
$1,917,624 Vol.
$1,917,624 Vol.
9 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market, underscored by the strong May jobs report, are the main factors supporting the 63.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range has held steady through multiple FOMC meetings, with March SEP projections showing 2026 PCE inflation at 2.7% and unemployment near 4.4%. Recent Reuters polling indicates nearly 70% of economists expect rates unchanged through year-end, while futures markets price a roughly one-third chance of a hike. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision and incoming CPI and employment releases that could shift the balance toward or against tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,917,624Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market, underscored by the strong May jobs report, are the main factors supporting the 63.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range has held steady through multiple FOMC meetings, with March SEP projections showing 2026 PCE inflation at 2.7% and unemployment near 4.4%. Recent Reuters polling indicates nearly 70% of economists expect rates unchanged through year-end, while futures markets price a roughly one-third chance of a hike. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision and incoming CPI and employment releases that could shift the balance toward or against tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,917,624Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market, underscored by the strong May jobs report, are the main factors supporting the 63.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. The current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range has held steady through multiple FOMC meetings, with March SEP projections showing 2026 PCE inflation at 2.7% and unemployment near 4.4%. Recent Reuters polling indicates nearly 70% of economists expect rates unchanged through year-end, while futures markets price a roughly one-third chance of a hike. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision and incoming CPI and employment releases that could shift the balance toward or against tightening.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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