Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and a resilient labor market have kept the federal funds rate steady near 3.50-3.75%, with markets assigning only about a 35% implied probability of any 2026 hike. Recent FOMC minutes and economist surveys show consensus leaning toward holding policy unchanged through year-end amid uncertainty over the new Fed leadership and moderating growth signals, outweighing hawkish rate-hike bets in futures pricing. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,882,551 Vol.
$1,882,551 Vol.
9 dez 2026
Sim
$1,882,551 Vol.
$1,882,551 Vol.
9 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and a resilient labor market have kept the federal funds rate steady near 3.50-3.75%, with markets assigning only about a 35% implied probability of any 2026 hike. Recent FOMC minutes and economist surveys show consensus leaning toward holding policy unchanged through year-end amid uncertainty over the new Fed leadership and moderating growth signals, outweighing hawkish rate-hike bets in futures pricing. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,882,551Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and a resilient labor market have kept the federal funds rate steady near 3.50-3.75%, with markets assigning only about a 35% implied probability of any 2026 hike. Recent FOMC minutes and economist surveys show consensus leaning toward holding policy unchanged through year-end amid uncertainty over the new Fed leadership and moderating growth signals, outweighing hawkish rate-hike bets in futures pricing. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,882,751Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and a resilient labor market have kept the federal funds rate steady near 3.50-3.75%, with markets assigning only about a 35% implied probability of any 2026 hike. Recent FOMC minutes and economist surveys show consensus leaning toward holding policy unchanged through year-end amid uncertainty over the new Fed leadership and moderating growth signals, outweighing hawkish rate-hike bets in futures pricing. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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