Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and energy prices adding pressure, has shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, reflected in the 54.5% probability for “Yes.” The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, while the June dot plot showed nine participants projecting higher rates by year-end amid a resilient labor market and solid growth. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced hawkish sentiment. Traders will closely watch the September FOMC meeting, upcoming PCE and CPI releases, and any escalation in geopolitical energy shocks for decisive shifts in the closely balanced outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
55% chance
$6,983,969 Vol.
$6,983,969 Vol.
9 dez 2026
Sim
55% chance
$6,983,969 Vol.
$6,983,969 Vol.
9 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and energy prices adding pressure, has shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, reflected in the 54.5% probability for “Yes.” The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, while the June dot plot showed nine participants projecting higher rates by year-end amid a resilient labor market and solid growth. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced hawkish sentiment. Traders will closely watch the September FOMC meeting, upcoming PCE and CPI releases, and any escalation in geopolitical energy shocks for decisive shifts in the closely balanced outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$6,983,969Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and energy prices adding pressure, has shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, reflected in the 54.5% probability for “Yes.” The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, while the June dot plot showed nine participants projecting higher rates by year-end amid a resilient labor market and solid growth. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced hawkish sentiment. Traders will closely watch the September FOMC meeting, upcoming PCE and CPI releases, and any escalation in geopolitical energy shocks for decisive shifts in the closely balanced outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,983,969Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and energy prices adding pressure, has shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, reflected in the 54.5% probability for “Yes.” The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, while the June dot plot showed nine participants projecting higher rates by year-end amid a resilient labor market and solid growth. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced hawkish sentiment. Traders will closely watch the September FOMC meeting, upcoming PCE and CPI releases, and any escalation in geopolitical energy shocks for decisive shifts in the closely balanced outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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