Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, including May’s robust jobs report, alongside persistent inflation pressures linked to geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader expectations toward a higher-for-longer policy stance. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds of 64.5% against any 2026 hike reflect consensus that the FOMC will likely hold rates steady at the June 17 meeting and through year-end rather than tighten further. Futures pricing shows limited but growing odds of a late-year increase, while the March dot plot and recent economist surveys point to unchanged policy as the base case. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC statement, updated projections, and incoming CPI and employment data that could alter the rate path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,879,880 Vol.
$1,879,880 Vol.
9 dez 2026
Sim
$1,879,880 Vol.
$1,879,880 Vol.
9 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, including May’s robust jobs report, alongside persistent inflation pressures linked to geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader expectations toward a higher-for-longer policy stance. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds of 64.5% against any 2026 hike reflect consensus that the FOMC will likely hold rates steady at the June 17 meeting and through year-end rather than tighten further. Futures pricing shows limited but growing odds of a late-year increase, while the March dot plot and recent economist surveys point to unchanged policy as the base case. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC statement, updated projections, and incoming CPI and employment data that could alter the rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,879,880Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, including May’s robust jobs report, alongside persistent inflation pressures linked to geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader expectations toward a higher-for-longer policy stance. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds of 64.5% against any 2026 hike reflect consensus that the FOMC will likely hold rates steady at the June 17 meeting and through year-end rather than tighten further. Futures pricing shows limited but growing odds of a late-year increase, while the March dot plot and recent economist surveys point to unchanged policy as the base case. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC statement, updated projections, and incoming CPI and employment data that could alter the rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,879,890Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, including May’s robust jobs report, alongside persistent inflation pressures linked to geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader expectations toward a higher-for-longer policy stance. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds of 64.5% against any 2026 hike reflect consensus that the FOMC will likely hold rates steady at the June 17 meeting and through year-end rather than tighten further. Futures pricing shows limited but growing odds of a late-year increase, while the March dot plot and recent economist surveys point to unchanged policy as the base case. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC statement, updated projections, and incoming CPI and employment data that could alter the rate path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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