Persistent inflation from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market, with May 2026 CPI rising 0.5% monthly and unemployment steady near 4.3%, anchor the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% target range and underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. A strong May jobs report and recent FOMC communications have shifted trader consensus away from earlier easing expectations, with most economists now forecasting a prolonged hold through year-end despite futures pricing roughly 66% odds of at least one 25-basis-point tightening by December. The June 17 meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside upcoming CPI and labor data, remains the key near-term catalyst that could either reinforce the pause or introduce late-year adjustment risks if price pressures prove more durable than anticipated.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,882,501 Vol.
$1,882,501 Vol.
9 dez 2026
Sim
$1,882,501 Vol.
$1,882,501 Vol.
9 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market, with May 2026 CPI rising 0.5% monthly and unemployment steady near 4.3%, anchor the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% target range and underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. A strong May jobs report and recent FOMC communications have shifted trader consensus away from earlier easing expectations, with most economists now forecasting a prolonged hold through year-end despite futures pricing roughly 66% odds of at least one 25-basis-point tightening by December. The June 17 meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside upcoming CPI and labor data, remains the key near-term catalyst that could either reinforce the pause or introduce late-year adjustment risks if price pressures prove more durable than anticipated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,882,501Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market, with May 2026 CPI rising 0.5% monthly and unemployment steady near 4.3%, anchor the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% target range and underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. A strong May jobs report and recent FOMC communications have shifted trader consensus away from earlier easing expectations, with most economists now forecasting a prolonged hold through year-end despite futures pricing roughly 66% odds of at least one 25-basis-point tightening by December. The June 17 meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside upcoming CPI and labor data, remains the key near-term catalyst that could either reinforce the pause or introduce late-year adjustment risks if price pressures prove more durable than anticipated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,882,551Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market, with May 2026 CPI rising 0.5% monthly and unemployment steady near 4.3%, anchor the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% target range and underpin the 65.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026. A strong May jobs report and recent FOMC communications have shifted trader consensus away from earlier easing expectations, with most economists now forecasting a prolonged hold through year-end despite futures pricing roughly 66% odds of at least one 25-basis-point tightening by December. The June 17 meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside upcoming CPI and labor data, remains the key near-term catalyst that could either reinforce the pause or introduce late-year adjustment risks if price pressures prove more durable than anticipated.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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