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Economia·Fed

Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?

icon for Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?
Economia·Fed

Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?

out 29

dez 9

out 29

dez 9

Sim

36% chance
Polymarket

$2,028,664 Vol.

Sim

36% chance
Polymarket

$2,028,664 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for a Federal Reserve hold through 2026, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike.** The federal funds target range remains at 3.50%–3.75%, with the effective rate near 3.62%. Recent data—including a strong May jobs report and May CPI showing headline inflation up 0.5% month-over-month—have shifted consensus away from cuts while keeping the base case for tightening limited. A Reuters poll of economists shows nearly 70% forecasting rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and desire to see inflation converge closer to the 2% target before any policy shift. Futures markets via CME FedWatch price a meaningful but minority probability of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, driven by upside inflation risks. However, the modal path among forecasters, including Goldman Sachs, points to steady policy into 2027, with any easing pushed later. The June 17 FOMC meeting and associated dot plot represent the immediate catalyst; removal of easing bias language or revised inflation projections could influence near-term odds, but current conditions favor the “no hike” outcome priced by Polymarket traders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,028,664
Data de Término
9 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for a Federal Reserve hold through 2026, supporting the 64.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike.** The federal funds target range remains at 3.50%–3.75%, with the effective rate near 3.62%. Recent data—including a strong May jobs report and May CPI showing headline inflation up 0.5% month-over-month—have shifted consensus away from cuts while keeping the base case for tightening limited. A Reuters poll of economists shows nearly 70% forecasting rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and desire to see inflation converge closer to the 2% target before any policy shift. Futures markets via CME FedWatch price a meaningful but minority probability of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, driven by upside inflation risks. However, the modal path among forecasters, including Goldman Sachs, points to steady policy into 2027, with any easing pushed later. The June 17 FOMC meeting and associated dot plot represent the immediate catalyst; removal of easing bias language or revised inflation projections could influence near-term odds, but current conditions favor the “no hike” outcome priced by Polymarket traders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,028,664
Data de Término
9 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" has generated $2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" is "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.