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Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?

icon for Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?

Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?

Sim

36% chance
Polymarket

$1,879,890 Vol.

Sim

36% chance
Polymarket

$1,879,890 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven by energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing solid payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has anchored the Fed at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. This data-driven caution under new Chair Kevin Warsh supports the 64.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate hike, as economists in recent polls largely project steady policy through year-end despite futures markets pricing a roughly one-in-three chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase. The June 17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates and potentially remove easing language, with any shift hinging on upcoming CPI and employment releases.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,879,890
Data de Término
9 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven by energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing solid payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has anchored the Fed at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. This data-driven caution under new Chair Kevin Warsh supports the 64.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate hike, as economists in recent polls largely project steady policy through year-end despite futures markets pricing a roughly one-in-three chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase. The June 17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates and potentially remove easing language, with any shift hinging on upcoming CPI and employment releases.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,880,514
Data de Término
9 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" is "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Aumento da taxa do Fed em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.