Persistent inflation at 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven by energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing solid payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has anchored the Fed at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. This data-driven caution under new Chair Kevin Warsh supports the 64.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate hike, as economists in recent polls largely project steady policy through year-end despite futures markets pricing a roughly one-in-three chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase. The June 17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates and potentially remove easing language, with any shift hinging on upcoming CPI and employment releases.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,879,890 Vol.
$1,879,890 Vol.
9 dez 2026
Sim
$1,879,890 Vol.
$1,879,890 Vol.
9 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven by energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing solid payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has anchored the Fed at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. This data-driven caution under new Chair Kevin Warsh supports the 64.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate hike, as economists in recent polls largely project steady policy through year-end despite futures markets pricing a roughly one-in-three chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase. The June 17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates and potentially remove easing language, with any shift hinging on upcoming CPI and employment releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,879,890Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven by energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing solid payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has anchored the Fed at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. This data-driven caution under new Chair Kevin Warsh supports the 64.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate hike, as economists in recent polls largely project steady policy through year-end despite futures markets pricing a roughly one-in-three chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase. The June 17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates and potentially remove easing language, with any shift hinging on upcoming CPI and employment releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,880,514Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation at 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven by energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market showing solid payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has anchored the Fed at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. This data-driven caution under new Chair Kevin Warsh supports the 64.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate hike, as economists in recent polls largely project steady policy through year-end despite futures markets pricing a roughly one-in-three chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase. The June 17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates and potentially remove easing language, with any shift hinging on upcoming CPI and employment releases.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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