Powell’s January 2028 Board term sets the outer bound for departure, yet markets assign the highest implied probability to an exit by year-end 2026 amid ongoing political pressure following Kevin Warsh’s May 2026 confirmation as Chair. Powell has publicly committed to remaining until an internal probe into Federal Reserve headquarters construction costs reaches “transparency and finality,” while legal challenges test the president’s ability to remove sitting governors. Recent FOMC continuity under the new leadership and steady 3.50-3.75% policy rate have kept focus on governance rather than immediate monetary shifts. Key near-term catalysts include any DOJ developments or congressional moves that could alter removal timelines.