Trader consensus around a 97.3% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which found no evidence of criminal conduct. Institutional safeguards, including judicial oversight that quashed related subpoenas and the central bank’s operational independence, have historically insulated senior monetary policymakers from rapid prosecution. Federal cases against comparable figures typically require extended grand jury processes and substantial evidence, neither of which has materialized. While political referrals or renewed scrutiny could introduce tail risks, the absence of active indictments or credible charges through mid-2026 underpins the current market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
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NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus around a 97.3% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which found no evidence of criminal conduct. Institutional safeguards, including judicial oversight that quashed related subpoenas and the central bank’s operational independence, have historically insulated senior monetary policymakers from rapid prosecution. Federal cases against comparable figures typically require extended grand jury processes and substantial evidence, neither of which has materialized. While political referrals or renewed scrutiny could introduce tail risks, the absence of active indictments or credible charges through mid-2026 underpins the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$4,065Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus around a 97.3% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which found no evidence of criminal conduct. Institutional safeguards, including judicial oversight that quashed related subpoenas and the central bank’s operational independence, have historically insulated senior monetary policymakers from rapid prosecution. Federal cases against comparable figures typically require extended grand jury processes and substantial evidence, neither of which has materialized. While political referrals or renewed scrutiny could introduce tail risks, the absence of active indictments or credible charges through mid-2026 underpins the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,065Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus around a 97.3% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which found no evidence of criminal conduct. Institutional safeguards, including judicial oversight that quashed related subpoenas and the central bank’s operational independence, have historically insulated senior monetary policymakers from rapid prosecution. Federal cases against comparable figures typically require extended grand jury processes and substantial evidence, neither of which has materialized. While political referrals or renewed scrutiny could introduce tail risks, the absence of active indictments or credible charges through mid-2026 underpins the current market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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