**Trader consensus around a 96.9% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Justice Department criminal investigation into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations.** A federal judge quashed related subpoenas in March, citing essentially zero evidence of criminal conduct and describing the probe as pretextual pressure tied to monetary policy disputes rather than verifiable misconduct. With the matter referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no charges filed, the episode ended without indictment. Powell completed his term as chair in May 2026 but remains a governor through January 2028. Near-term resolution before year-end appears improbable absent new, substantiated allegations, though remote tail risks include any unexpected reopening of the inquiry by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro or unrelated developments. Markets price the outcome as overwhelmingly likely given the absence of ongoing legal exposure.