The 97% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not face incarceration before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which had been viewed as politically driven amid tensions over monetary policy. With Powell having stepped down as chair in May 2026 and no subsequent regulatory filings, indictments, or credible legal actions reported, trader consensus aligns with the absence of any active enforcement pathway against a sitting or former Fed governor. While tail risks such as unforeseen congressional referrals or unrelated personal matters cannot be entirely ruled out, the prior investigation's dismissal and lack of new developments through mid-2026 underpin the strong positioning against any jail outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNOVO
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31 dez 2026
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31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 97% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not face incarceration before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which had been viewed as politically driven amid tensions over monetary policy. With Powell having stepped down as chair in May 2026 and no subsequent regulatory filings, indictments, or credible legal actions reported, trader consensus aligns with the absence of any active enforcement pathway against a sitting or former Fed governor. While tail risks such as unforeseen congressional referrals or unrelated personal matters cannot be entirely ruled out, the prior investigation's dismissal and lack of new developments through mid-2026 underpin the strong positioning against any jail outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$4,065Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 97% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not face incarceration before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which had been viewed as politically driven amid tensions over monetary policy. With Powell having stepped down as chair in May 2026 and no subsequent regulatory filings, indictments, or credible legal actions reported, trader consensus aligns with the absence of any active enforcement pathway against a sitting or former Fed governor. While tail risks such as unforeseen congressional referrals or unrelated personal matters cannot be entirely ruled out, the prior investigation's dismissal and lack of new developments through mid-2026 underpin the strong positioning against any jail outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,065Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 97% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not face incarceration before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which had been viewed as politically driven amid tensions over monetary policy. With Powell having stepped down as chair in May 2026 and no subsequent regulatory filings, indictments, or credible legal actions reported, trader consensus aligns with the absence of any active enforcement pathway against a sitting or former Fed governor. While tail risks such as unforeseen congressional referrals or unrelated personal matters cannot be entirely ruled out, the prior investigation's dismissal and lack of new developments through mid-2026 underpin the strong positioning against any jail outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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