Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 primarily because the Department of Justice dropped its politically charged criminal investigation into his congressional testimony on the Fed’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation on April 24, 2026, with no charges filed. Institutional protections around the central bank, the absence of credible evidence of criminal conduct, and the procedural barriers to prosecuting a sitting Fed leader have reinforced this consensus. While tail risks such as renewed partisan pressure under the current administration or an unanticipated whistleblower disclosure remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting developments and face significant legal and political hurdles that keep market-implied odds near certainty for the “No” outcome.