Jerome Powell faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or legal proceedings as Federal Reserve Chair, supporting the market's 98% implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Institutional norms protect senior monetary policymakers from politically motivated prosecutions, with the Fed's statutory independence and historical precedent reinforcing trader consensus on the negligible likelihood of incarceration. Recent economic data releases and FOMC communications show Powell continuing standard policy duties without disruption. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to unprecedented political upheaval or hypothetical regulatory overreach, though both would require multiple extraordinary barriers to materialize before the 2027 threshold.