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icon for Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

icon for Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

3% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
3% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus pricing "No" at 97% for Jerome Powell facing incarceration before 2027 reflects the swift dismissal of the sole recent DOJ probe, which centered on his 2025 congressional testimony regarding Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and was dropped without charges on April 24, 2026, after a federal judge ruled the subpoenas lacked evidentiary basis beyond policy disagreements. Powell completed his chair term in May 2026 without legal impediments, transitioning to a board role extending into 2028 amid standard inspector general review rather than criminal proceedings. Historical precedent for Fed leadership underscores institutional protections, while the absence of fresh indictments or regulatory actions reinforces the market-implied odds. Remote tail risks include unforeseen unrelated allegations or extraordinary political escalation, though both face substantial procedural and evidentiary barriers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,117
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus pricing "No" at 97% for Jerome Powell facing incarceration before 2027 reflects the swift dismissal of the sole recent DOJ probe, which centered on his 2025 congressional testimony regarding Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and was dropped without charges on April 24, 2026, after a federal judge ruled the subpoenas lacked evidentiary basis beyond policy disagreements. Powell completed his chair term in May 2026 without legal impediments, transitioning to a board role extending into 2028 amid standard inspector general review rather than criminal proceedings. Historical precedent for Fed leadership underscores institutional protections, while the absence of fresh indictments or regulatory actions reinforces the market-implied odds. Remote tail risks include unforeseen unrelated allegations or extraordinary political escalation, though both face substantial procedural and evidentiary barriers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,117
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 3% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 3¢, the market collectively assigns a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" is 3% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.