Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4% and notable gasoline-driven gains, alongside resilient labor market data featuring 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll growth, underpin the 55.5% market-implied odds for a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December FOMC. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, emphasizing inflation control amid supply pressures, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy relative to earlier easing expectations. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty around upcoming September and October data releases and potential stabilization in energy prices, while lower odds on larger moves or cuts highlight limited support for aggressive shifts. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning on the balance of incoming inflation and employment figures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado25 bps increase 56%
Sem alteração 40%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,284 Vol.
$687,284 Vol.
9 dez 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
Sem alteração
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
Sem alteração 40%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,284 Vol.
$687,284 Vol.
9 dez 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,788 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,924 Vol.
3%
Sem alteração
$136,728 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,142 Vol.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4% and notable gasoline-driven gains, alongside resilient labor market data featuring 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll growth, underpin the 55.5% market-implied odds for a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December FOMC. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, emphasizing inflation control amid supply pressures, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy relative to earlier easing expectations. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty around upcoming September and October data releases and potential stabilization in energy prices, while lower odds on larger moves or cuts highlight limited support for aggressive shifts. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning on the balance of incoming inflation and employment figures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$687,284Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4% and notable gasoline-driven gains, alongside resilient labor market data featuring 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll growth, underpin the 55.5% market-implied odds for a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December FOMC. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, emphasizing inflation control amid supply pressures, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy relative to earlier easing expectations. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty around upcoming September and October data releases and potential stabilization in energy prices, while lower odds on larger moves or cuts highlight limited support for aggressive shifts. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning on the balance of incoming inflation and employment figures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$687,284Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4% and notable gasoline-driven gains, alongside resilient labor market data featuring 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll growth, underpin the 55.5% market-implied odds for a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December FOMC. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, emphasizing inflation control amid supply pressures, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy relative to earlier easing expectations. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty around upcoming September and October data releases and potential stabilization in energy prices, while lower odds on larger moves or cuts highlight limited support for aggressive shifts. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning on the balance of incoming inflation and employment figures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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