Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC meeting, with no change in the federal funds rate (currently 3.50%-3.75%) priced at 67.5% implied probability. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs and held the unemployment rate at 4.1%, while July CPI showed 3.4% year-over-year headline and 2.5% core readings amid energy and supply pressures linked to Middle East tensions. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the July 29 decision to hold rates passed 9-3 with three dissents favoring a hike, and recent communications plus revised economist forecasts from firms like UBS now embed 25-basis-point increases in September and December. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift October odds, particularly if inflation moderates or labor data weakens. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that balances these hawkish signals against the base case of policy stability after potential earlier tightening.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDecisão do Fed em outubro?
Decisão do Fed em outubro?
Sem mudança 68%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 30%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 3.3%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$1,327,907 Vol.
$1,327,907 Vol.
28 out 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos base
1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
3%
Sem mudança
68%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
30%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
1%
Sem mudança 68%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 30%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 3.3%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$1,327,907 Vol.
$1,327,907 Vol.
28 out 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos base
$222,984 Vol.
1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
$493,550 Vol.
3%
Sem mudança
$216,143 Vol.
68%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$242,003 Vol.
30%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$153,227 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC meeting, with no change in the federal funds rate (currently 3.50%-3.75%) priced at 67.5% implied probability. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs and held the unemployment rate at 4.1%, while July CPI showed 3.4% year-over-year headline and 2.5% core readings amid energy and supply pressures linked to Middle East tensions. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the July 29 decision to hold rates passed 9-3 with three dissents favoring a hike, and recent communications plus revised economist forecasts from firms like UBS now embed 25-basis-point increases in September and December. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift October odds, particularly if inflation moderates or labor data weakens. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that balances these hawkish signals against the base case of policy stability after potential earlier tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,327,907Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC meeting, with no change in the federal funds rate (currently 3.50%-3.75%) priced at 67.5% implied probability. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs and held the unemployment rate at 4.1%, while July CPI showed 3.4% year-over-year headline and 2.5% core readings amid energy and supply pressures linked to Middle East tensions. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the July 29 decision to hold rates passed 9-3 with three dissents favoring a hike, and recent communications plus revised economist forecasts from firms like UBS now embed 25-basis-point increases in September and December. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift October odds, particularly if inflation moderates or labor data weakens. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that balances these hawkish signals against the base case of policy stability after potential earlier tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,327,907Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC meeting, with no change in the federal funds rate (currently 3.50%-3.75%) priced at 67.5% implied probability. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs and held the unemployment rate at 4.1%, while July CPI showed 3.4% year-over-year headline and 2.5% core readings amid energy and supply pressures linked to Middle East tensions. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the July 29 decision to hold rates passed 9-3 with three dissents favoring a hike, and recent communications plus revised economist forecasts from firms like UBS now embed 25-basis-point increases in September and December. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift October odds, particularly if inflation moderates or labor data weakens. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus that balances these hawkish signals against the base case of policy stability after potential earlier tightening.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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