Elevated 10-year Treasury yields near 4.70% reflect persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, geopolitical oil-price pressures, and heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits exceeding $1.8 trillion annually. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has signaled a higher-for-longer stance, with the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and market pricing incorporating possible 2026 hikes rather than cuts. Rising term premiums and real yields near 2.4% underscore investor demands for compensation against debt-issuance risks and above-target CPI prints near 3.4%. Key near-term catalysts include the August 27–29 Jackson Hole symposium, July PCE release, and September FOMC meeting, which could shift expectations if inflation moderates or growth weakens further.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$225,402 Vol.
30 dez 2026
3,9%
12%
3,8%
4%
3,7%
3%
3,6%
5%
3,5%
1%
3,0%
2%
2,0%
5%
1,0%
2%
$225,402 Vol.
3,9%
$44,197 Vol.
12%
3,8%
$41,312 Vol.
4%
3,7%
$27,425 Vol.
3%
3,6%
$5,589 Vol.
5%
3,5%
$33,070 Vol.
1%
3,0%
$917 Vol.
2%
2,0%
$564 Vol.
5%
1,0%
$40,570 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Elevated 10-year Treasury yields near 4.70% reflect persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, geopolitical oil-price pressures, and heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits exceeding $1.8 trillion annually. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has signaled a higher-for-longer stance, with the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and market pricing incorporating possible 2026 hikes rather than cuts. Rising term premiums and real yields near 2.4% underscore investor demands for compensation against debt-issuance risks and above-target CPI prints near 3.4%. Key near-term catalysts include the August 27–29 Jackson Hole symposium, July PCE release, and September FOMC meeting, which could shift expectations if inflation moderates or growth weakens further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$225,402Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Elevated 10-year Treasury yields near 4.70% reflect persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, geopolitical oil-price pressures, and heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits exceeding $1.8 trillion annually. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has signaled a higher-for-longer stance, with the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and market pricing incorporating possible 2026 hikes rather than cuts. Rising term premiums and real yields near 2.4% underscore investor demands for compensation against debt-issuance risks and above-target CPI prints near 3.4%. Key near-term catalysts include the August 27–29 Jackson Hole symposium, July PCE release, and September FOMC meeting, which could shift expectations if inflation moderates or growth weakens further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$225,402Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated 10-year Treasury yields near 4.70% reflect persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, geopolitical oil-price pressures, and heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits exceeding $1.8 trillion annually. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC has signaled a higher-for-longer stance, with the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and market pricing incorporating possible 2026 hikes rather than cuts. Rising term premiums and real yields near 2.4% underscore investor demands for compensation against debt-issuance risks and above-target CPI prints near 3.4%. Key near-term catalysts include the August 27–29 Jackson Hole symposium, July PCE release, and September FOMC meeting, which could shift expectations if inflation moderates or growth weakens further.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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