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icon for Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?

Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?

icon for Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?

Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

5% chance
Polymarket

$15,057 Vol.

Sim

5% chance
Polymarket

$15,057 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The substantial $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of July 2025, raising the statutory limit to $41.1 trillion, supplies the core driver behind traders’ 94.8% implied probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027. Federal debt subject to the limit stood well below that threshold in mid-2026, leaving Treasury with routine borrowing capacity and extraordinary measures that defer the next potential constraint into 2027. Congress has raised, suspended, or revised the debt limit more than seventy times since 1960, consistently resolving impasses before any breach. No scheduled votes, procedural deadlines, or fiscal developments within the resolution window currently signal elevated risk of default.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$15,057
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The substantial $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of July 2025, raising the statutory limit to $41.1 trillion, supplies the core driver behind traders’ 94.8% implied probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027. Federal debt subject to the limit stood well below that threshold in mid-2026, leaving Treasury with routine borrowing capacity and extraordinary measures that defer the next potential constraint into 2027. Congress has raised, suspended, or revised the debt limit more than seventy times since 1960, consistently resolving impasses before any breach. No scheduled votes, procedural deadlines, or fiscal developments within the resolution window currently signal elevated risk of default.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$15,070
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA vão dar calote na dívida até 2027?" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?" has generated $15.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?" is "Os EUA vão dar calote na dívida até 2027?" at just 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.