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Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?

Market icon

Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

5% acaso
Polymarket

$14,699 Vol.

Sim

5% acaso
Polymarket

$14,699 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a mere 5% chance of US debt default by 2027, reflecting the debt ceiling's July 2025 increase to $41.1 trillion via bipartisan legislation, providing substantial headroom as national debt hovers near $39 trillion amid projected $2 trillion annual deficits per CBO estimates. Recent partial government shutdowns—January 31 to February 3 and February 14 onward over DHS appropriations and immigration reforms—underscore spending disputes but have not triggered debt limit impasses, with Congress historically resolving brinkmanship through raises or suspensions to avoid unprecedented default. GAO reports note elevated taxpayer costs from prolonged negotiations, yet Treasury borrowing remains on track, and upcoming X-date projections point to late 2026 or early 2027, allowing time for legislative action amid bills like S.4173 mandating spending cuts with future hikes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$14,699
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a mere 5% chance of US debt default by 2027, reflecting the debt ceiling's July 2025 increase to $41.1 trillion via bipartisan legislation, providing substantial headroom as national debt hovers near $39 trillion amid projected $2 trillion annual deficits per CBO estimates. Recent partial government shutdowns—January 31 to February 3 and February 14 onward over DHS appropriations and immigration reforms—underscore spending disputes but have not triggered debt limit impasses, with Congress historically resolving brinkmanship through raises or suspensions to avoid unprecedented default. GAO reports note elevated taxpayer costs from prolonged negotiations, yet Treasury borrowing remains on track, and upcoming X-date projections point to late 2026 or early 2027, allowing time for legislative action amid bills like S.4173 mandating spending cuts with future hikes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$14,699
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA vão dar calote na dívida até 2027?" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?" has generated $14.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?" is "Os EUA vão dar calote na dívida até 2027?" at just 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.