President Trump's April 12 announcement of a US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, following collapsed peace talks in Islamabad, has traders pricing a 61% implied probability of an official lift by April 30, with 82% by May 31, reflecting expectations of swift diplomatic pressure yielding results. Over the past 48 hours, US Central Command reports effective enforcement, turning back six Iran-linked vessels and sharply reducing Persian Gulf traffic, spiking oil prices amid warnings from China and shipping firms. Trump has hinted at resumed US-Iran talks within days, potentially de-escalating amid Iran's threats of forceful response, though sustained blockade could extend amid proxy tensions with Hamas and Hezbollah.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTrump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
$636,006 Vol.
30 abr 2026
April 15
3%
April 17
10%
April 19
19%
April 30
60%
31 de maio
81%
$636,006 Vol.
April 15
$192,478 Vol.
3%
April 17
$66,801 Vol.
10%
April 19
$96,352 Vol.
19%
April 30
$69,215 Vol.
60%
31 de maio
$7,701 Vol.
81%
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump's April 12 announcement of a US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, following collapsed peace talks in Islamabad, has traders pricing a 61% implied probability of an official lift by April 30, with 82% by May 31, reflecting expectations of swift diplomatic pressure yielding results. Over the past 48 hours, US Central Command reports effective enforcement, turning back six Iran-linked vessels and sharply reducing Persian Gulf traffic, spiking oil prices amid warnings from China and shipping firms. Trump has hinted at resumed US-Iran talks within days, potentially de-escalating amid Iran's threats of forceful response, though sustained blockade could extend amid proxy tensions with Hamas and Hezbollah.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 12, 2026, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$636,006Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 12, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump's April 12 announcement of a US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, following collapsed peace talks in Islamabad, has traders pricing a 61% implied probability of an official lift by April 30, with 82% by May 31, reflecting expectations of swift diplomatic pressure yielding results. Over the past 48 hours, US Central Command reports effective enforcement, turning back six Iran-linked vessels and sharply reducing Persian Gulf traffic, spiking oil prices amid warnings from China and shipping firms. Trump has hinted at resumed US-Iran talks within days, potentially de-escalating amid Iran's threats of forceful response, though sustained blockade could extend amid proxy tensions with Hamas and Hezbollah.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$636,006Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 12, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 12 announcement of a US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, following collapsed peace talks in Islamabad, has traders pricing a 61% implied probability of an official lift by April 30, with 82% by May 31, reflecting expectations of swift diplomatic pressure yielding results. Over the past 48 hours, US Central Command reports effective enforcement, turning back six Iran-linked vessels and sharply reducing Persian Gulf traffic, spiking oil prices amid warnings from China and shipping firms. Trump has hinted at resumed US-Iran talks within days, potentially de-escalating amid Iran's threats of forceful response, though sustained blockade could extend amid proxy tensions with Hamas and Hezbollah.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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