Recent June 2026 core PCE data printed at just 0.1% MoM—below the 0.2% consensus—following a 0.3% May rise, with the year-over-year rate easing to 3.3% from 3.4%, aligning with softer CPI prints that showed energy relief and flat core readings. This cooling has left July 2026 expectations evenly balanced across outcomes near 0.0–0.2%, as traders weigh persistent shelter pressures and service inflation against potential further moderation in goods prices and consumer spending. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty ahead of the August 12 CPI release and August 26 PCE report, with market-implied odds capturing real-capital bets on whether the recent disinflation trend extends or reaccelerates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado0.2% 38%
0.3% 38%
0.0% 37.4%
-0.1% 37.0%
NOVO
NOVO
26 ago 2026
≤-0.2%
36%
-0.1%
37%
0.0%
37%
0.1%
36%
0.2%
38%
0.3%
38%
0.4%+
44%
0.2% 38%
0.3% 38%
0.0% 37.4%
-0.1% 37.0%
NOVO
NOVO
26 ago 2026
≤-0.2%
$0 Vol.
36%
-0.1%
$0 Vol.
37%
0.0%
$0 Vol.
37%
0.1%
$0 Vol.
36%
0.2%
$0 Vol.
38%
0.3%
$0 Vol.
38%
0.4%+
$60 Vol.
44%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent June 2026 core PCE data printed at just 0.1% MoM—below the 0.2% consensus—following a 0.3% May rise, with the year-over-year rate easing to 3.3% from 3.4%, aligning with softer CPI prints that showed energy relief and flat core readings. This cooling has left July 2026 expectations evenly balanced across outcomes near 0.0–0.2%, as traders weigh persistent shelter pressures and service inflation against potential further moderation in goods prices and consumer spending. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty ahead of the August 12 CPI release and August 26 PCE report, with market-implied odds capturing real-capital bets on whether the recent disinflation trend extends or reaccelerates.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$60Data de Término
26 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent June 2026 core PCE data printed at just 0.1% MoM—below the 0.2% consensus—following a 0.3% May rise, with the year-over-year rate easing to 3.3% from 3.4%, aligning with softer CPI prints that showed energy relief and flat core readings. This cooling has left July 2026 expectations evenly balanced across outcomes near 0.0–0.2%, as traders weigh persistent shelter pressures and service inflation against potential further moderation in goods prices and consumer spending. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty ahead of the August 12 CPI release and August 26 PCE report, with market-implied odds capturing real-capital bets on whether the recent disinflation trend extends or reaccelerates.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$60Data de Término
26 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June 2026 core PCE data printed at just 0.1% MoM—below the 0.2% consensus—following a 0.3% May rise, with the year-over-year rate easing to 3.3% from 3.4%, aligning with softer CPI prints that showed energy relief and flat core readings. This cooling has left July 2026 expectations evenly balanced across outcomes near 0.0–0.2%, as traders weigh persistent shelter pressures and service inflation against potential further moderation in goods prices and consumer spending. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty ahead of the August 12 CPI release and August 26 PCE report, with market-implied odds capturing real-capital bets on whether the recent disinflation trend extends or reaccelerates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions