Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth odds reflect a closely contested range centered on 1.5–2.5% quarter-over-quarter, shaped by the 1.4% rebound recorded in Q2 after Q1’s contraction. Export strength, particularly to the U.S., and resilient manufacturing continue to support activity, while weak domestic demand, subdued investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions act as headwinds. Government forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to 1–2%, with Banxico and private analysts citing persistent fiscal pressures and soft consumption. Recent monthly indicators through June show 2.8% year-over-year economic activity, yet models point to a sequential slowdown in Q3. The October preliminary release will clarify whether momentum holds or fades toward the lower bins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado2.0-2.5% 33%
1.5-2.0% 31%
2.5-3.0% 14%
1.0-1.5% 11.6%
$35,160 Vol.
$35,160 Vol.
30 out 2026
<0.5%
4%
0.5-1.0%
6%
1.0-1.5%
12%
1.5-2.0%
31%
2.0-2.5%
33%
2.5-3.0%
14%
3.0-3.5%
2%
3.5%+
3%
2.0-2.5% 33%
1.5-2.0% 31%
2.5-3.0% 14%
1.0-1.5% 11.6%
$35,160 Vol.
$35,160 Vol.
30 out 2026
<0.5%
$925 Vol.
4%
0.5-1.0%
$721 Vol.
6%
1.0-1.5%
$4,037 Vol.
12%
1.5-2.0%
$12,208 Vol.
31%
2.0-2.5%
$13,729 Vol.
33%
2.5-3.0%
$1,929 Vol.
14%
3.0-3.5%
$800 Vol.
2%
3.5%+
$811 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth odds reflect a closely contested range centered on 1.5–2.5% quarter-over-quarter, shaped by the 1.4% rebound recorded in Q2 after Q1’s contraction. Export strength, particularly to the U.S., and resilient manufacturing continue to support activity, while weak domestic demand, subdued investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions act as headwinds. Government forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to 1–2%, with Banxico and private analysts citing persistent fiscal pressures and soft consumption. Recent monthly indicators through June show 2.8% year-over-year economic activity, yet models point to a sequential slowdown in Q3. The October preliminary release will clarify whether momentum holds or fades toward the lower bins.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$35,160Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth odds reflect a closely contested range centered on 1.5–2.5% quarter-over-quarter, shaped by the 1.4% rebound recorded in Q2 after Q1’s contraction. Export strength, particularly to the U.S., and resilient manufacturing continue to support activity, while weak domestic demand, subdued investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions act as headwinds. Government forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to 1–2%, with Banxico and private analysts citing persistent fiscal pressures and soft consumption. Recent monthly indicators through June show 2.8% year-over-year economic activity, yet models point to a sequential slowdown in Q3. The October preliminary release will clarify whether momentum holds or fades toward the lower bins.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$35,160Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth odds reflect a closely contested range centered on 1.5–2.5% quarter-over-quarter, shaped by the 1.4% rebound recorded in Q2 after Q1’s contraction. Export strength, particularly to the U.S., and resilient manufacturing continue to support activity, while weak domestic demand, subdued investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions act as headwinds. Government forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to 1–2%, with Banxico and private analysts citing persistent fiscal pressures and soft consumption. Recent monthly indicators through June show 2.8% year-over-year economic activity, yet models point to a sequential slowdown in Q3. The October preliminary release will clarify whether momentum holds or fades toward the lower bins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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