Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP outlook, now centered around 1.3% from several leading institutes, reflect stronger-than-expected H1 performance including 0.9% year-over-year growth in Q2. However, Q3 momentum faces near-term headwinds from historically low Rhine water levels, which are expected to constrain industrial output and transport by an estimated 0.2 percentage points. Elevated inflation near 2.7% continues to pressure household purchasing power, while fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure spending provides support. Geopolitical risks tied to the Iran conflict add downside uncertainty. These dynamics leave market-implied odds closely split across the 0.7-1.3%+ range, underscoring the balance between recovering exports and persistent structural constraints as Q3 data finalize.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1.3%+ 34%
1.0-1.2% 31%
0.7-0.9% 25%
≤0.0% 4.2%
$51,443 Vol.
$51,443 Vol.
30 out 2026
≤0.0%
4%
0.1-0.3%
<1%
0.4-0.6%
2%
0.7-0.9%
25%
1.0-1.2%
31%
1.3%+
34%
1.3%+ 34%
1.0-1.2% 31%
0.7-0.9% 25%
≤0.0% 4.2%
$51,443 Vol.
$51,443 Vol.
30 out 2026
≤0.0%
$2,290 Vol.
4%
0.1-0.3%
$2,414 Vol.
<1%
0.4-0.6%
$1,471 Vol.
2%
0.7-0.9%
$9,125 Vol.
25%
1.0-1.2%
$25,968 Vol.
31%
1.3%+
$10,173 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP outlook, now centered around 1.3% from several leading institutes, reflect stronger-than-expected H1 performance including 0.9% year-over-year growth in Q2. However, Q3 momentum faces near-term headwinds from historically low Rhine water levels, which are expected to constrain industrial output and transport by an estimated 0.2 percentage points. Elevated inflation near 2.7% continues to pressure household purchasing power, while fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure spending provides support. Geopolitical risks tied to the Iran conflict add downside uncertainty. These dynamics leave market-implied odds closely split across the 0.7-1.3%+ range, underscoring the balance between recovering exports and persistent structural constraints as Q3 data finalize.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volume
$51,443Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP outlook, now centered around 1.3% from several leading institutes, reflect stronger-than-expected H1 performance including 0.9% year-over-year growth in Q2. However, Q3 momentum faces near-term headwinds from historically low Rhine water levels, which are expected to constrain industrial output and transport by an estimated 0.2 percentage points. Elevated inflation near 2.7% continues to pressure household purchasing power, while fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure spending provides support. Geopolitical risks tied to the Iran conflict add downside uncertainty. These dynamics leave market-implied odds closely split across the 0.7-1.3%+ range, underscoring the balance between recovering exports and persistent structural constraints as Q3 data finalize.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,443Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP outlook, now centered around 1.3% from several leading institutes, reflect stronger-than-expected H1 performance including 0.9% year-over-year growth in Q2. However, Q3 momentum faces near-term headwinds from historically low Rhine water levels, which are expected to constrain industrial output and transport by an estimated 0.2 percentage points. Elevated inflation near 2.7% continues to pressure household purchasing power, while fiscal stimulus from defense and infrastructure spending provides support. Geopolitical risks tied to the Iran conflict add downside uncertainty. These dynamics leave market-implied odds closely split across the 0.7-1.3%+ range, underscoring the balance between recovering exports and persistent structural constraints as Q3 data finalize.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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