Canada’s July 2026 monthly GDP release, due September 29, features a Statistics Canada advance estimate of essentially flat output after June’s 0.3% gain, with gains in real estate and professional services offset by weakness in retail trade and manufacturing. This follows robust 3.3% annualized Q2 growth driven by exports and domestic demand, but recent merchandise trade data show a sharp narrowing of the surplus as exports fell 2.3% while imports rose 2.2%. Traders are weighting the closely bunched probabilities across 0.6–0.7%, flat, and negative outcomes amid uncertainty over revisions, persistent U.S. trade frictions, and moderating Q3 momentum, with the final figure expected to shape Bank of Canada policy expectations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado0,6 a 0,7% 30%
<0,0% 29%
0,4% a 0,5% 27%
0,8%+ 25%
NOVO
NOVO
29 set 2026
<0,0%
29%
0,0 a 0,1%
24%
0,2% a 0,3%
20%
0,4% a 0,5%
27%
0,6 a 0,7%
30%
0,8%+
25%
0,6 a 0,7% 30%
<0,0% 29%
0,4% a 0,5% 27%
0,8%+ 25%
NOVO
NOVO
29 set 2026
<0,0%
$0 Vol.
29%
0,0 a 0,1%
$20 Vol.
24%
0,2% a 0,3%
$0 Vol.
20%
0,4% a 0,5%
$0 Vol.
27%
0,6 a 0,7%
$0 Vol.
30%
0,8%+
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Canada’s July 2026 monthly GDP release, due September 29, features a Statistics Canada advance estimate of essentially flat output after June’s 0.3% gain, with gains in real estate and professional services offset by weakness in retail trade and manufacturing. This follows robust 3.3% annualized Q2 growth driven by exports and domestic demand, but recent merchandise trade data show a sharp narrowing of the surplus as exports fell 2.3% while imports rose 2.2%. Traders are weighting the closely bunched probabilities across 0.6–0.7%, flat, and negative outcomes amid uncertainty over revisions, persistent U.S. trade frictions, and moderating Q3 momentum, with the final figure expected to shape Bank of Canada policy expectations.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$20Data de Término
29 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Canada’s July 2026 monthly GDP release, due September 29, features a Statistics Canada advance estimate of essentially flat output after June’s 0.3% gain, with gains in real estate and professional services offset by weakness in retail trade and manufacturing. This follows robust 3.3% annualized Q2 growth driven by exports and domestic demand, but recent merchandise trade data show a sharp narrowing of the surplus as exports fell 2.3% while imports rose 2.2%. Traders are weighting the closely bunched probabilities across 0.6–0.7%, flat, and negative outcomes amid uncertainty over revisions, persistent U.S. trade frictions, and moderating Q3 momentum, with the final figure expected to shape Bank of Canada policy expectations.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending July 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for July 2026, scheduled for release on September 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Volume
$20Data de Término
29 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Canada’s July 2026 monthly GDP release, due September 29, features a Statistics Canada advance estimate of essentially flat output after June’s 0.3% gain, with gains in real estate and professional services offset by weakness in retail trade and manufacturing. This follows robust 3.3% annualized Q2 growth driven by exports and domestic demand, but recent merchandise trade data show a sharp narrowing of the surplus as exports fell 2.3% while imports rose 2.2%. Traders are weighting the closely bunched probabilities across 0.6–0.7%, flat, and negative outcomes amid uncertainty over revisions, persistent U.S. trade frictions, and moderating Q3 momentum, with the final figure expected to shape Bank of Canada policy expectations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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