Recent Eurozone data and institutional forecasts underpin the strong market-implied odds for 0-1.0% annual GDP growth in 2026. Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter gave way to a 0.4% Q2 expansion that beat expectations, lifting year-over-year growth to 1.0%, yet official and analyst projections from the OECD, IMF, European Commission, and Vanguard cluster between 0.8% and 1.1% for the full year. Persistent energy-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, services-driven inflation near 3.2%, and the ECB’s June rate hike plus potential follow-up tightening have weighed on domestic demand and business sentiment. Uneven country performance and structural drags further anchor trader consensus around sub-2% outcomes, with only modest scope for upward revision if geopolitical risks ease materially before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado0-1,0% 66.8%
1,0-2,0% 25%
<0% 5.8%
4,0-5,0% <1%
$28,764 Vol.
$28,764 Vol.
31 jan 2027
<0%
6%
0-1,0%
67%
1,0-2,0%
25%
2,0-3,0%
<1%
3,0-4,0%
<1%
4,0-5,0%
1%
5,0-6,0%
<1%
6,0-7,0%
1%
7,0%+
<1%
0-1,0% 66.8%
1,0-2,0% 25%
<0% 5.8%
4,0-5,0% <1%
$28,764 Vol.
$28,764 Vol.
31 jan 2027
<0%
$1,615 Vol.
6%
0-1,0%
$10,688 Vol.
67%
1,0-2,0%
$6,957 Vol.
25%
2,0-3,0%
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
3,0-4,0%
$1,027 Vol.
<1%
4,0-5,0%
$2,108 Vol.
1%
5,0-6,0%
$1,127 Vol.
<1%
6,0-7,0%
$2,544 Vol.
1%
7,0%+
$1,579 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Eurozone data and institutional forecasts underpin the strong market-implied odds for 0-1.0% annual GDP growth in 2026. Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter gave way to a 0.4% Q2 expansion that beat expectations, lifting year-over-year growth to 1.0%, yet official and analyst projections from the OECD, IMF, European Commission, and Vanguard cluster between 0.8% and 1.1% for the full year. Persistent energy-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, services-driven inflation near 3.2%, and the ECB’s June rate hike plus potential follow-up tightening have weighed on domestic demand and business sentiment. Uneven country performance and structural drags further anchor trader consensus around sub-2% outcomes, with only modest scope for upward revision if geopolitical risks ease materially before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$28,764Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Eurozone data and institutional forecasts underpin the strong market-implied odds for 0-1.0% annual GDP growth in 2026. Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter gave way to a 0.4% Q2 expansion that beat expectations, lifting year-over-year growth to 1.0%, yet official and analyst projections from the OECD, IMF, European Commission, and Vanguard cluster between 0.8% and 1.1% for the full year. Persistent energy-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, services-driven inflation near 3.2%, and the ECB’s June rate hike plus potential follow-up tightening have weighed on domestic demand and business sentiment. Uneven country performance and structural drags further anchor trader consensus around sub-2% outcomes, with only modest scope for upward revision if geopolitical risks ease materially before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,764Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Eurozone data and institutional forecasts underpin the strong market-implied odds for 0-1.0% annual GDP growth in 2026. Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter gave way to a 0.4% Q2 expansion that beat expectations, lifting year-over-year growth to 1.0%, yet official and analyst projections from the OECD, IMF, European Commission, and Vanguard cluster between 0.8% and 1.1% for the full year. Persistent energy-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, services-driven inflation near 3.2%, and the ECB’s June rate hike plus potential follow-up tightening have weighed on domestic demand and business sentiment. Uneven country performance and structural drags further anchor trader consensus around sub-2% outcomes, with only modest scope for upward revision if geopolitical risks ease materially before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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