Recent volatility in U.S. payroll data, with August 2026 nonfarm payrolls surging to +162,000 versus expectations near 56,000 after July's subdued +21,000 gain, has left trader expectations dispersed across ranges for the September report due October 2. Persistent labor-market cooling—evident in the 12-month average near 31,000 monthly gains and a breakeven pace lowered by demographics and immigration trends—competes with signs of resilience in sectors like leisure, hospitality, and government education. Elevated inflation near 3.4%, Treasury yields above 4.9%, and policy uncertainty around trade and labor supply further widen the distribution, keeping the leading 50k–100k bucket at just 26.5% amid closely contested outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado50 mil a 100 mil 27%
0 a 50 mil 21%
150 mil a 200 mil 16%
200 mil+ 14%
NOVO
NOVO
2 out 2026
<-50k
11%
-50 mil a 0
14%
0 a 50 mil
21%
50 mil a 100 mil
27%
100 mil a 150 mil
13%
150 mil a 200 mil
16%
200 mil+
14%
50 mil a 100 mil 27%
0 a 50 mil 21%
150 mil a 200 mil 16%
200 mil+ 14%
NOVO
NOVO
2 out 2026
<-50k
$383 Vol.
11%
-50 mil a 0
$389 Vol.
14%
0 a 50 mil
$691 Vol.
21%
50 mil a 100 mil
$439 Vol.
27%
100 mil a 150 mil
$448 Vol.
13%
150 mil a 200 mil
$382 Vol.
16%
200 mil+
$541 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent volatility in U.S. payroll data, with August 2026 nonfarm payrolls surging to +162,000 versus expectations near 56,000 after July's subdued +21,000 gain, has left trader expectations dispersed across ranges for the September report due October 2. Persistent labor-market cooling—evident in the 12-month average near 31,000 monthly gains and a breakeven pace lowered by demographics and immigration trends—competes with signs of resilience in sectors like leisure, hospitality, and government education. Elevated inflation near 3.4%, Treasury yields above 4.9%, and policy uncertainty around trade and labor supply further widen the distribution, keeping the leading 50k–100k bucket at just 26.5% amid closely contested outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado Aberto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Volume
$3,273Data de Término
3 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent volatility in U.S. payroll data, with August 2026 nonfarm payrolls surging to +162,000 versus expectations near 56,000 after July's subdued +21,000 gain, has left trader expectations dispersed across ranges for the September report due October 2. Persistent labor-market cooling—evident in the 12-month average near 31,000 monthly gains and a breakeven pace lowered by demographics and immigration trends—competes with signs of resilience in sectors like leisure, hospitality, and government education. Elevated inflation near 3.4%, Treasury yields above 4.9%, and policy uncertainty around trade and labor supply further widen the distribution, keeping the leading 50k–100k bucket at just 26.5% amid closely contested outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$3,273Data de Término
3 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent volatility in U.S. payroll data, with August 2026 nonfarm payrolls surging to +162,000 versus expectations near 56,000 after July's subdued +21,000 gain, has left trader expectations dispersed across ranges for the September report due October 2. Persistent labor-market cooling—evident in the 12-month average near 31,000 monthly gains and a breakeven pace lowered by demographics and immigration trends—competes with signs of resilience in sectors like leisure, hospitality, and government education. Elevated inflation near 3.4%, Treasury yields above 4.9%, and policy uncertainty around trade and labor supply further widen the distribution, keeping the leading 50k–100k bucket at just 26.5% amid closely contested outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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