Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI at +0.3% month-over-month, alongside a 0.4% headline rise and surging gasoline prices up nearly 4% in the month, has anchored trader focus on September's year-over-year print. Energy shocks from oil supply constraints are expected to lift headline inflation modestly above the 3.4% August level, while shelter and core goods trends offer some offset. With outcomes clustered tightly between 3.4% and 3.6%, markets reflect uncertainty over the extent of energy pass-through versus broader moderation ahead of the October 14 release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where rate-hike odds have climbed above 80%. This setup underscores how incoming data on fuel costs and services inflation will determine whether probabilities shift toward higher or contained readings.