Recent July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.12%—the lowest since 2020 and within Banxico’s 2–4% target—has anchored trader sentiment for Mexico’s 2026 annual inflation, with the 3.50–3.99% bin leading at 42.4% implied probability. Persistent disinflation reflects subdued energy and food prices alongside core inflation easing to 3.95%, though Banxico forecasts a modest Q3 rebound toward 3.8%. Analyst projections for year-end 2026 cluster between 3.9% and 4.1%, supporting the secondary 4.00–4.49% outcome at 28.5%. Monetary policy caution, with the benchmark rate held near 6.50%, and upcoming INEGI releases through year-end remain key swing factors influencing these market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado3,50% a 3,99% 42.2%
4,00% a 4,49% 29%
4,50% a 4,99% 8%
3,00% a 3,49% 7.2%
$64,128 Vol.
$64,128 Vol.
8 jan 2027
<2,50%
1%
2,50% a 2,99%
5%
3,00% a 3,49%
7%
3,50% a 3,99%
42%
4,00% a 4,49%
29%
4,50% a 4,99%
8%
5,00% a 5,49%
4%
5,50%+
3%
3,50% a 3,99% 42.2%
4,00% a 4,49% 29%
4,50% a 4,99% 8%
3,00% a 3,49% 7.2%
$64,128 Vol.
$64,128 Vol.
8 jan 2027
<2,50%
$1,061 Vol.
1%
2,50% a 2,99%
$4,895 Vol.
5%
3,00% a 3,49%
$28,329 Vol.
7%
3,50% a 3,99%
$4,014 Vol.
42%
4,00% a 4,49%
$12,313 Vol.
29%
4,50% a 4,99%
$4,752 Vol.
8%
5,00% a 5,49%
$2,452 Vol.
4%
5,50%+
$6,313 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.12%—the lowest since 2020 and within Banxico’s 2–4% target—has anchored trader sentiment for Mexico’s 2026 annual inflation, with the 3.50–3.99% bin leading at 42.4% implied probability. Persistent disinflation reflects subdued energy and food prices alongside core inflation easing to 3.95%, though Banxico forecasts a modest Q3 rebound toward 3.8%. Analyst projections for year-end 2026 cluster between 3.9% and 4.1%, supporting the secondary 4.00–4.49% outcome at 28.5%. Monetary policy caution, with the benchmark rate held near 6.50%, and upcoming INEGI releases through year-end remain key swing factors influencing these market-implied odds.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Mercado Aberto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$64,128Data de Término
8 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.12%—the lowest since 2020 and within Banxico’s 2–4% target—has anchored trader sentiment for Mexico’s 2026 annual inflation, with the 3.50–3.99% bin leading at 42.4% implied probability. Persistent disinflation reflects subdued energy and food prices alongside core inflation easing to 3.95%, though Banxico forecasts a modest Q3 rebound toward 3.8%. Analyst projections for year-end 2026 cluster between 3.9% and 4.1%, supporting the secondary 4.00–4.49% outcome at 28.5%. Monetary policy caution, with the benchmark rate held near 6.50%, and upcoming INEGI releases through year-end remain key swing factors influencing these market-implied odds.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$64,128Data de Término
8 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.12%—the lowest since 2020 and within Banxico’s 2–4% target—has anchored trader sentiment for Mexico’s 2026 annual inflation, with the 3.50–3.99% bin leading at 42.4% implied probability. Persistent disinflation reflects subdued energy and food prices alongside core inflation easing to 3.95%, though Banxico forecasts a modest Q3 rebound toward 3.8%. Analyst projections for year-end 2026 cluster between 3.9% and 4.1%, supporting the secondary 4.00–4.49% outcome at 28.5%. Monetary policy caution, with the benchmark rate held near 6.50%, and upcoming INEGI releases through year-end remain key swing factors influencing these market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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