Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the best AI model with 100% implied probability on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control Off) as of May 8, 2026, driven by its top Elo rating from ongoing blind pairwise user battles that prioritize raw text generation without stylistic imitation. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in February 2026, excels here via enhanced chain-of-thought reasoning in "thinking" mode, outpacing newer Opus 4.7 variants and rivals like Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-5.5 high following a week of favorable battle outcomes. While near-consensus reflects real-capital bets on the live snapshot, realistic challenges include last-minute battle swings, surprise model updates from OpenAI or Google, or leaderboard tweaks before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizadoclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
gemini-3-pro <1%
$45,836 Vol.
$45,836 Vol.
8 mai 2026
claude-opus-4-6
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
No
gemini-3-pro
No
gpt-5.5-high
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
No
claude-opus-4-7
No
muse-spark
No
Other
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
gemini-3-pro <1%
$45,836 Vol.
$45,836 Vol.
8 mai 2026
claude-opus-4-6
$1,762 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$13,858 Vol.
No
gemini-3-pro
$2,762 Vol.
No
gpt-5.5-high
$4,587 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$9,289 Vol.
Yes
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$3,643 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-7
$1,081 Vol.
No
muse-spark
$1,416 Vol.
No
Other
$7,438 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the best AI model with 100% implied probability on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control Off) as of May 8, 2026, driven by its top Elo rating from ongoing blind pairwise user battles that prioritize raw text generation without stylistic imitation. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in February 2026, excels here via enhanced chain-of-thought reasoning in "thinking" mode, outpacing newer Opus 4.7 variants and rivals like Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-5.5 high following a week of favorable battle outcomes. While near-consensus reflects real-capital bets on the live snapshot, realistic challenges include last-minute battle swings, surprise model updates from OpenAI or Google, or leaderboard tweaks before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$45,836Data de Término
8 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the best AI model with 100% implied probability on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control Off) as of May 8, 2026, driven by its top Elo rating from ongoing blind pairwise user battles that prioritize raw text generation without stylistic imitation. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in February 2026, excels here via enhanced chain-of-thought reasoning in "thinking" mode, outpacing newer Opus 4.7 variants and rivals like Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-5.5 high following a week of favorable battle outcomes. While near-consensus reflects real-capital bets on the live snapshot, realistic challenges include last-minute battle swings, surprise model updates from OpenAI or Google, or leaderboard tweaks before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$45,836Data de Término
8 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the best AI model with 100% implied probability on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control Off) as of May 8, 2026, driven by its top Elo rating from ongoing blind pairwise user battles that prioritize raw text generation without stylistic imitation. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in February 2026, excels here via enhanced chain-of-thought reasoning in "thinking" mode, outpacing newer Opus 4.7 variants and rivals like Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-5.5 high following a week of favorable battle outcomes. While near-consensus reflects real-capital bets on the live snapshot, realistic challenges include last-minute battle swings, surprise model updates from OpenAI or Google, or leaderboard tweaks before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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