Trader consensus on Polymarket, backed by substantial capital, prices a 71% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates at the April/May, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor market data that have diminished near-term cut expectations. March CPI accelerated to 3.5% year-over-year (headline) with core steady at 3.8%, exceeding softer forecasts, while nonfarm payrolls surged 303,000 in March amid low unemployment at 3.8%. Hawkish Fed rhetoric post-March dot plot, which still envisions three cuts in 2024 but emphasized data dependence, has shifted sentiment toward the status quo through summer. Key catalysts ahead include April 26 PCE inflation gauge and the April 30–May 1 policy decision, with Treasury yields climbing as markets recalibrate the Fed funds path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 71%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
7%
Cut–Pause–Cut
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
14%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$0 Vol.
7%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$0 Vol.
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$0 Vol.
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$0 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$271 Vol.
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$169 Vol.
14%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$0 Vol.
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$0 Vol.
1%
Other
$0 Vol.
15%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket, backed by substantial capital, prices a 71% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates at the April/May, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor market data that have diminished near-term cut expectations. March CPI accelerated to 3.5% year-over-year (headline) with core steady at 3.8%, exceeding softer forecasts, while nonfarm payrolls surged 303,000 in March amid low unemployment at 3.8%. Hawkish Fed rhetoric post-March dot plot, which still envisions three cuts in 2024 but emphasized data dependence, has shifted sentiment toward the status quo through summer. Key catalysts ahead include April 26 PCE inflation gauge and the April 30–May 1 policy decision, with Treasury yields climbing as markets recalibrate the Fed funds path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$440Data de Término
Jul 29, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket, backed by substantial capital, prices a 71% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates at the April/May, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor market data that have diminished near-term cut expectations. March CPI accelerated to 3.5% year-over-year (headline) with core steady at 3.8%, exceeding softer forecasts, while nonfarm payrolls surged 303,000 in March amid low unemployment at 3.8%. Hawkish Fed rhetoric post-March dot plot, which still envisions three cuts in 2024 but emphasized data dependence, has shifted sentiment toward the status quo through summer. Key catalysts ahead include April 26 PCE inflation gauge and the April 30–May 1 policy decision, with Treasury yields climbing as markets recalibrate the Fed funds path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$440Data de Término
Jul 29, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, backed by substantial capital, prices a 71% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates at the April/May, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor market data that have diminished near-term cut expectations. March CPI accelerated to 3.5% year-over-year (headline) with core steady at 3.8%, exceeding softer forecasts, while nonfarm payrolls surged 303,000 in March amid low unemployment at 3.8%. Hawkish Fed rhetoric post-March dot plot, which still envisions three cuts in 2024 but emphasized data dependence, has shifted sentiment toward the status quo through summer. Key catalysts ahead include April 26 PCE inflation gauge and the April 30–May 1 policy decision, with Treasury yields climbing as markets recalibrate the Fed funds path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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