Recent official forecasts from sources including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international models indicate a maximum temperature in Buenos Aires on August 9 most likely reaching 13–14 °C under partly cloudy skies with moderate southwesterly winds. This pattern stems from ongoing cold-air advection and a stable boundary layer that limits daytime heating during Southern Hemisphere winter, consistent with recent days when highs have hovered near or below seasonal averages of 15–17 °C. Model agreement on limited cloud cover and wind speeds around 10–15 mph supports the market’s strong tilt toward 14 °C (59 % implied probability), while any slight shift in steering flow or insolation could favor the secondary 13 °C outcome. Updated model runs and observations through the evening of August 8 will provide the final inputs before resolution.