Short-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chengdu em 24 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Chengdu em 24 de agosto?
34°C 23%
35°C 21%
38°C ou mais 17%
36°C 14%
NOVO
NOVO
24 ago 2026
28°C ou menos
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
10%
33°C
13%
34°C
23%
35°C
21%
36°C
14%
37°C
10%
38°C ou mais
17%
34°C 23%
35°C 21%
38°C ou mais 17%
36°C 14%
NOVO
NOVO
24 ago 2026
28°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$5 Vol.
4%
30°C
$5 Vol.
4%
31°C
$5 Vol.
2%
32°C
$20 Vol.
10%
33°C
$0 Vol.
13%
34°C
$0 Vol.
23%
35°C
$0 Vol.
21%
36°C
$0 Vol.
14%
37°C
$0 Vol.
10%
38°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$35Data de Término
24 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$35Data de Término
24 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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