Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty with near-equal implied probabilities for 37°C (23%), 38°C (22.5%), and 39°C (22.5%) as Jeddah's highest temperature on April 18, driven by ensemble forecast spreads from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks in this range amid typical mid-April climatology of 34-36°C averages. Recent cooler highs—32°C confirmed at King Abdulaziz International Airport on April 14 and 34°C favored for April 16—stem from transient northerly winds and minor cloud intrusions, but models now show strengthening upper-level ridging and persistent subsidence fostering clear skies for rebound heating. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing from the warm Red Sea (surface temperatures ~26°C), which could shave 1-2°C off peaks if onshore flows intensify early, versus lighter winds allowing fuller insolation. Watch 00Z/12Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Jeddah on April 18?
Highest temperature in Jeddah on April 18?
37°C 23%
38°C 22%
39°C 22%
40°C 18%
33°C or below
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
9%
36°C
12%
37°C
23%
38°C
22%
39°C
22%
40°C
18%
41°C
11%
42°C
6%
43°C or higher
1%
37°C 23%
38°C 22%
39°C 22%
40°C 18%
33°C or below
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
9%
36°C
12%
37°C
23%
38°C
22%
39°C
22%
40°C
18%
41°C
11%
42°C
6%
43°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty with near-equal implied probabilities for 37°C (23%), 38°C (22.5%), and 39°C (22.5%) as Jeddah's highest temperature on April 18, driven by ensemble forecast spreads from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks in this range amid typical mid-April climatology of 34-36°C averages. Recent cooler highs—32°C confirmed at King Abdulaziz International Airport on April 14 and 34°C favored for April 16—stem from transient northerly winds and minor cloud intrusions, but models now show strengthening upper-level ridging and persistent subsidence fostering clear skies for rebound heating. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing from the warm Red Sea (surface temperatures ~26°C), which could shave 1-2°C off peaks if onshore flows intensify early, versus lighter winds allowing fuller insolation. Watch 00Z/12Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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