Current forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a shift to cooler conditions over Warsaw on August 17, with daytime maxima most likely near 22°C under overcast skies, light rain, and westerly flow that limits solar heating after recent warmer days. This aligns with the market’s leading 30% implied probability for 22°C and secondary support around 23°C, while probabilities for 24°C or higher remain low given the expected cloud cover and precipitation. Key variables include the exact timing and strength of any frontal passage, model spread in boundary-layer moisture, and local urban heat effects, all of which introduce modest uncertainty reflected in the spread across 20–23°C outcomes. Historical August averages near 23–24°C provide context, but the near-term pattern favors values at or below the seasonal norm.