Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the primary near-term driver elevating trader expectations for June 2026 global mean surface temperatures, with official NOAA and IRI outlooks assigning high probability (over 80%) of emergence by mid-year and persistence through winter. This natural warming pattern, superimposed on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic background warming, typically adds several tenths of a degree to monthly anomalies during onset phases, consistent with model consensus favoring values in the 1.20–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Recent sea-surface temperature trends show rapid warming in the Niño 3.4 region, while historical analogs from prior El Niño transitions underscore potential for short-term spikes, though model spread and spring predictability barriers introduce uncertainty ahead of the next CPC diagnostic discussion on June 11.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
<1.10ºC 12%
NOVO
NOVO
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
40%
>1.29ºC
41%
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
<1.10ºC 12%
NOVO
NOVO
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$5 Vol.
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 Vol.
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 Vol.
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 Vol.
41%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 Vol.
40%
>1.29ºC
$270 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the primary near-term driver elevating trader expectations for June 2026 global mean surface temperatures, with official NOAA and IRI outlooks assigning high probability (over 80%) of emergence by mid-year and persistence through winter. This natural warming pattern, superimposed on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic background warming, typically adds several tenths of a degree to monthly anomalies during onset phases, consistent with model consensus favoring values in the 1.20–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Recent sea-surface temperature trends show rapid warming in the Niño 3.4 region, while historical analogs from prior El Niño transitions underscore potential for short-term spikes, though model spread and spring predictability barriers introduce uncertainty ahead of the next CPC diagnostic discussion on June 11.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$446Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the primary near-term driver elevating trader expectations for June 2026 global mean surface temperatures, with official NOAA and IRI outlooks assigning high probability (over 80%) of emergence by mid-year and persistence through winter. This natural warming pattern, superimposed on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic background warming, typically adds several tenths of a degree to monthly anomalies during onset phases, consistent with model consensus favoring values in the 1.20–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Recent sea-surface temperature trends show rapid warming in the Niño 3.4 region, while historical analogs from prior El Niño transitions underscore potential for short-term spikes, though model spread and spring predictability barriers introduce uncertainty ahead of the next CPC diagnostic discussion on June 11.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$446Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific represent the primary near-term driver elevating trader expectations for June 2026 global mean surface temperatures, with official NOAA and IRI outlooks assigning high probability (over 80%) of emergence by mid-year and persistence through winter. This natural warming pattern, superimposed on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic background warming, typically adds several tenths of a degree to monthly anomalies during onset phases, consistent with model consensus favoring values in the 1.20–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Recent sea-surface temperature trends show rapid warming in the Niño 3.4 region, while historical analogs from prior El Niño transitions underscore potential for short-term spikes, though model spread and spring predictability barriers introduce uncertainty ahead of the next CPC diagnostic discussion on June 11.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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