Kristi Noem’s removal as Homeland Security Secretary in March 2026 by President Trump, following congressional hearings and Democratic impeachment resolutions introduced in January over immigration enforcement tactics, agent-involved shootings, oversight disputes, and contracting practices, largely explains the market’s strong consensus against impeachment this year. With Republicans controlling both chambers, those partisan articles stalled in committee and never advanced to a floor vote. Subsequent developments, including Noem’s transition to a new envoy role and a ceremonial statue unveiling in South Dakota in August, have further reduced any institutional pressure or procedural pathway for removal proceedings against her as a former official. Trader pricing reflects the low likelihood of renewed action in the remaining months of 2026 absent major new catalysts.