Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Tóquio a 1 de julho?
Temperatura mais baixa em Tóquio a 1 de julho?
23°C 100.0%
17°C ou menos <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$15,067 Vol.
$15,067 Vol.
1 jul 2026
17°C ou menos
Não
18°C
Não
19°C
Não
20°C
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C
Sim
24°C
Não
25°C
Não
26°C
Não
27°C ou mais
Não
23°C 100.0%
17°C ou menos <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$15,067 Vol.
$15,067 Vol.
1 jul 2026
17°C ou menos
$604 Vol.
Não
18°C
$540 Vol.
Não
19°C
$755 Vol.
Não
20°C
$1,580 Vol.
Não
21°C
$1,182 Vol.
Não
22°C
$3,008 Vol.
Não
23°C
$3,519 Vol.
Sim
24°C
$1,996 Vol.
Não
25°C
$603 Vol.
Não
26°C
$435 Vol.
Não
27°C ou mais
$843 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$15,067Data de Término
1 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,067Data de Término
1 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other agencies indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible for Tokyo on July 1, which should limit daytime heating and support overnight lows near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for minimum temperatures in the low 20s Celsius, with no strong signals for unusual cooling from northerly flow or warming from clear conditions. This equilibrium explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 22–24°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing rather than divergent long-range trends. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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