OpenAI's recent release of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has fueled discussion around AGI timelines, with president Greg Brockman describing entry into the "AGI era" and stating he personally believes the milestone may be tied to this model. However, the company stopped short of a formal announcement meeting its charter definition of highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. Sam Altman has repeatedly called AGI a poorly defined or marketing term, while independent evaluations show mixed results on benchmarks like ARC-AGI-3 and pushback from researchers questioning full achievement. Recent emphasis on AI safety, alignment priorities, and signals of potential development slowdowns further temper expectations for an official declaration before year-end 2026, supporting traders' 78.5% implied probability on "No."