OpenAI’s September 3 release of GPT-6 Astra triggered the strongest recent sentiment shift, with president Greg Brockman declaring entry into the “AGI era” and stating he personally believes the model may mark the milestone under the company’s definition of highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. However, OpenAI has issued no formal announcement that AGI has been achieved, while CEO Sam Altman recently described the term as largely a marketing concept. Independent benchmark runs show mixed results—ARC-AGI-3 scores ranged from 99.9 percent in OpenAI’s harness to 62.7 percent in the provider-neutral version—and the ARC Prize team explicitly declined to call the model AGI. Traders therefore assign roughly 21 percent implied probability to a definitive pre-2027 declaration, viewing the current rhetoric as suggestive rather than conclusive amid ongoing alignment and oversight challenges.