**In the 2026 A. Le Coq Premium Liiga, with 28 of 36 matchdays completed, JK Narva Trans sit bottom on 18 points and a -43 goal difference, making direct relegation to the Esiliiga the strong market consensus.** FC Nõmme United and FC Kuressaare are level on 28 points in the play-off zone, several points clear of safety but well behind mid-table sides. Narva Trans’s dismal recent form and heavy defeats have widened the gap, while the newly promoted Nõmme United and experienced Kuressaare face a tight run-in featuring fixtures against Levadia, Flora, and Paide. The final eight rounds, plus the November play-off against the Esiliiga runner-up, will determine whether the ninth-placed side survives or drops. Trader pricing reflects Narva Trans as the near-certain relegation candidate and the tight battle between the two sides above them.