Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and related variants, released in July 2026, currently top multiple independent leaderboards including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena composites, driving strong trader consensus on its position. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive in reasoning and agentic tasks but trails slightly, while xAI's Grok 4.6 post-training update on August 12 boosted it into joint third on several benchmarks. Google Gemini models lag the absolute frontier despite strong context and multimodal capabilities. With four months left, new model drops, benchmark shifts, or scaling improvements from any lab could alter the #1 ranking before year-end resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?
$119,061 Vol.
OpenAI
36%
20%
Alibaba
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
3%
$119,061 Vol.
OpenAI
36%
20%
Alibaba
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
3%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and related variants, released in July 2026, currently top multiple independent leaderboards including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena composites, driving strong trader consensus on its position. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive in reasoning and agentic tasks but trails slightly, while xAI's Grok 4.6 post-training update on August 12 boosted it into joint third on several benchmarks. Google Gemini models lag the absolute frontier despite strong context and multimodal capabilities. With four months left, new model drops, benchmark shifts, or scaling improvements from any lab could alter the #1 ranking before year-end resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado



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