Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8/5 releases have driven strong trader focus, as these models currently lead multiple benchmarks including LMSYS Arena variants and coding suites like SWE-Bench and WebDev Arena through superior agentic tool use and reasoning. OpenAI's July GPT-5.6 family (Sol, Terra, Luna) and Google's Gemini 3.1–3.6 series have narrowed gaps on multimodal and speed metrics, while Meta's Muse Spark updates and xAI's Grok iterations add competitive pressure in open-weight and real-time capabilities. With labs shipping frontier updates every few weeks, trader sentiment centers on sustained benchmark dominance, compute scaling, and agent reliability rather than single launches, with expected fall releases from all major players likely to shift positions before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?
$86,437 Vol.
OpenAI
30%
24%
Moonshot
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
ByteDance
10%
Z.ai
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Alibaba
7%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
7%
Mistral
3%
$86,437 Vol.
OpenAI
30%
24%
Moonshot
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
ByteDance
10%
Z.ai
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Alibaba
7%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
7%
Mistral
3%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8/5 releases have driven strong trader focus, as these models currently lead multiple benchmarks including LMSYS Arena variants and coding suites like SWE-Bench and WebDev Arena through superior agentic tool use and reasoning. OpenAI's July GPT-5.6 family (Sol, Terra, Luna) and Google's Gemini 3.1–3.6 series have narrowed gaps on multimodal and speed metrics, while Meta's Muse Spark updates and xAI's Grok iterations add competitive pressure in open-weight and real-time capabilities. With labs shipping frontier updates every few weeks, trader sentiment centers on sustained benchmark dominance, compute scaling, and agent reliability rather than single launches, with expected fall releases from all major players likely to shift positions before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado



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