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icon for Quem será preso antes de 2027?
Política·James Comey

Quem será preso antes de 2027?

icon for Quem será preso antes de 2027?
Política·James Comey

Quem será preso antes de 2027?

$417,597 Vol.

Polymarket

$417,597 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$165,423 Vol.

10%

John Brennan

$22,822 Vol.

20%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$23,830 Vol.

13%

Adam Schiff

$17,036 Vol.

4%

Barack Obama

$29,681 Vol.

2%

James Comey

$10,841 Vol.

8%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,385 Vol.

19%

James Clapper

$8,391 Vol.

12%

Letitia James

$3,637 Vol.

3%

Hillary Clinton

$26,360 Vol.

2%

Bill Clinton

$2,889 Vol.

1%

Loretta Lynch

$2,411 Vol.

8%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

10%

Candace Owens

$268 Vol.

7%

Gavin Newsom

$39,435 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,949 Vol.

5%

John Kerry

$503 Vol.

1%

Pam Bondi

$2,189 Vol.

2%

Tom Homan

$41,914 Vol.

7%

Kash Patel

$607 Vol.

1%

Brandon Johnson

$3,290 Vol.

10%

Lisa Cook

$4,042 Vol.

3%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

11%

Joe Biden

$7,597 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of figures with documented legal exposure or enforcement risks, including former intelligence officials like John Brennan and activists such as Mahmoud Khalil who have faced prior detention or scrutiny. With resolution set for December 31, 2026, the compressed timeline limits opportunities for new indictments or arrests, keeping most individual probabilities modest. Recent developments include continued ICE interior enforcement surges through summer 2026, federal fraud operations yielding thousands of arrests globally, and specific probes tied to prior administration actions or protest-related cases. Congressional oversight sessions and potential DOJ priorities through year-end represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift odds, while structural barriers such as prosecutorial discretion and evidentiary thresholds constrain broader movement. Market pricing reflects crowd assessments of these narrow windows rather than broad predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$417,597
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of figures with documented legal exposure or enforcement risks, including former intelligence officials like John Brennan and activists such as Mahmoud Khalil who have faced prior detention or scrutiny. With resolution set for December 31, 2026, the compressed timeline limits opportunities for new indictments or arrests, keeping most individual probabilities modest. Recent developments include continued ICE interior enforcement surges through summer 2026, federal fraud operations yielding thousands of arrests globally, and specific probes tied to prior administration actions or protest-related cases. Congressional oversight sessions and potential DOJ priorities through year-end represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift odds, while structural barriers such as prosecutorial discretion and evidentiary thresholds constrain broader movement. Market pricing reflects crowd assessments of these narrow windows rather than broad predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$417,597
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quem será preso antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Brennan" at 20%, followed by "Mahmoud Khalil" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 20¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 20% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quem será preso antes de 2027?" has generated $417.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quem será preso antes de 2027?," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quem será preso antes de 2027?" is "John Brennan" at 20%, meaning the market assigns a 20% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mahmoud Khalil" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quem será preso antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.