Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal charges or indictments despite an ongoing DOJ grand jury probe into Obama-era officials' handling of the 2016 Russia election interference investigation. Launched in August 2025 by Attorney General Pam Bondi following criminal referrals from DNI Tulsi Gabbard, the inquiry has issued subpoenas—including to former FBI Director James Comey on March 19, 2026—but produced no public filings against Obama himself. Legal hurdles for prosecuting a former president, potential immunity claims, and historical precedents without arrests of ex-presidents underpin the low arrest probability, though late indictments or escalations could shift odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Sim
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal charges or indictments despite an ongoing DOJ grand jury probe into Obama-era officials' handling of the 2016 Russia election interference investigation. Launched in August 2025 by Attorney General Pam Bondi following criminal referrals from DNI Tulsi Gabbard, the inquiry has issued subpoenas—including to former FBI Director James Comey on March 19, 2026—but produced no public filings against Obama himself. Legal hurdles for prosecuting a former president, potential immunity claims, and historical precedents without arrests of ex-presidents underpin the low arrest probability, though late indictments or escalations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal charges or indictments despite an ongoing DOJ grand jury probe into Obama-era officials' handling of the 2016 Russia election interference investigation. Launched in August 2025 by Attorney General Pam Bondi following criminal referrals from DNI Tulsi Gabbard, the inquiry has issued subpoenas—including to former FBI Director James Comey on March 19, 2026—but produced no public filings against Obama himself. Legal hurdles for prosecuting a former president, potential immunity claims, and historical precedents without arrests of ex-presidents underpin the low arrest probability, though late indictments or escalations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal charges or indictments despite an ongoing DOJ grand jury probe into Obama-era officials' handling of the 2016 Russia election interference investigation. Launched in August 2025 by Attorney General Pam Bondi following criminal referrals from DNI Tulsi Gabbard, the inquiry has issued subpoenas—including to former FBI Director James Comey on March 19, 2026—but produced no public filings against Obama himself. Legal hurdles for prosecuting a former president, potential immunity claims, and historical precedents without arrests of ex-presidents underpin the low arrest probability, though late indictments or escalations could shift odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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